Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:46:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

40 0x40f6…25b6 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL −$42 (-34%) realized −$43 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -66% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -72% what you keep after slip

Net edge-72%after slip

Net WR17%break-even

Win rate17%1W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$16per market

Trades / day13.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit12%portable

Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +17%

net ROI/market (all)-69.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	-66.0%	-69.3%	17%	17%	-54.8%
≤30d	6	-66.0%	-69.3%	17%	17%	-54.8%
≤90d	6	-66.0%	-69.3%	17%	17%	-54.8%
all	6	-66.0%	-69.3%	17%	17%	-54.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover13.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-69.3%	17%	-54.8%
10%	-72.2%	17%	-59.2%
15%	-74.9%	17%	-63.1%
20%	-77.4%	17%	-66.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -50% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -66% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$21 vs −$13 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.33 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$38

Realized−$43

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)17%

Wins / losses1 / 5

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)6 / 8

History coverage1d

Avg bet$16

Trades / day13.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan?	Yes	16¢	16¢	$27	$28	+$1 (+5%)
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan?	Yes	11¢	10¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-5%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria?	Jun 17	$15	−$15	-98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria?	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-97%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5)	Jun 17	$20	+$21	+102%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$5	−$3	-57%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal?	Jun 16	$21	−$20	-97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 16	$21	−$20	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan?	BUY Yes	16¢	$21	33m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan?	BUY Yes	15¢	$7	36m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan?	BUY Yes	11¢	$10	38m
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria?	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria?	BUY Yes	12¢	$5	1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria?	BUY Yes	3¢	$5	1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria?	BUY Yes	14¢	$10	1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5)	SELL Argentina	38¢	$41	1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5)	BUY Argentina	18¢	$20	2h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	6¢	$2	11h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal?	BUY Yes	12¢	$21	12h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	7¢	$5	12h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	15¢	$21	12h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.94 · official $37.94 (match) · 13 history records