Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:08:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40f3…78f7 other 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 431d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate38%21W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% $0
other 16% −$4
politics 15% −$1
crypto 6% $0
sports 3% $0
economics 3% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -2.2% -11.5% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 14 -1.0% -10.5% 29% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 14 -1.0% -10.5% 29% 0% -9.5%
all 55 -2.3% -11.6% 38% 2% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 2% -10.1%
10% -20.1% 0% -18.7%
15% -27.8% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

431d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses21 / 34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)55 / 55
History coverage431d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 55 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $49 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $4 $0 -6%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $49 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $45 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $49 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 06 $36 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $66 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $58 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 29 $16 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $6 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 28 $44 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 28 $13 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $7 −$1 -8%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Dec 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jun 27 $3 −$2 -77%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 26 $7 −$1 -16%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the San Francisco 49ers? Jun 08 $8 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? May 23 $8 $0 -0%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 22 $8 $0 +5%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 16 $8 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 13 $8 −$1 -9%
Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb May 09 $8 $0 +1%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? May 08 $8 $0 +1%
Will Lakas win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2 May 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? May 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 06 $8 $0 -1%
Will the next Pope be from Africa? May 06 $8 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? May 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on April 30? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? May 05 $7 $0 -1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 30 $7 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Apr 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers retire? Apr 29 $6 $0 +1%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? Apr 29 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win by 0–24 seats? Apr 28 $2 −$1 -31%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Prince Edward Island in t Apr 28 $5 $0 +1%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Apr 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2000 in April? Apr 27 $7 $0 +3%
Will the Conservative Party win by 25–49 seats? Apr 26 $7 $0 -1%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 26 $16 −$1 -6%
Will the Liberal Party win between 47% and 50% of the vote in the 2025 Apr 24 $7 $0 -0%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? Apr 24 $7 $0 -1%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 24 $8 $0 +0%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Apr 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi Apr 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Apr 22 $1 $0 +12%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Apr 22 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $49 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $49 4h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $4 34h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $49 36h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $49 38h
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $3 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $2 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $5 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $49 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $49 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $7 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $30 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $36 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $5 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $3 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $32 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $40 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $18 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 13d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 13d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $49 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $48 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 160 history records