Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:03:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
40 0x40ec…f47c sports 325 markets active 1h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$70 (-6%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%153W / 168L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$6
14 days−$3
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$32
other 3% −$29
politics 2% −$6
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -36.8% -42.8% 56% 44% -26.8%
≤30d 26 -33.1% -39.5% 46% 35% -18.1%
≤90d 69 -10.9% -19.4% 48% 42% -12.0%
all 321 -5.2% -14.2% 48% 46% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 46% -15.4%
10% -22.4% 41% -23.5%
15% -29.9% 36% -30.9%
20% -36.8% 32% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses153 / 168
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)321 / 325
History coverage468d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 321 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 158 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - NODWIN C Jun 15 $4 +$1 +23%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 15 $5 $0 +10%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 15 $4 $0 +11%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playo Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: MODUS vs 1p2m (BO3) - The International Europe Open Qualifier Jun 12 $4 +$1 +13%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Seize the day (BO3) - The Internati Jun 12 $4 +$1 +12%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 G Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs F5 Esports (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoffs Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team (BO3) - Asia Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs Banger Gang (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Eu Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Valorant: Dplus vs ARETE (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 03 $1 +$4 +365%
Dota 2: TeamDk vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 02 $4 +$1 +33%
Dota 2: BALU vs Team Lynx (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Europe Clo Jun 01 $5 $0 +10%
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs KUUSAMO.gg (BO3) - Elisa Open Suomi Playoffs May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Fluxo (BO3) - Circuit X Base Recife Gr May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: 9z Team vs KRÜ Blaze (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regula May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO5) - Prime League May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: KRÜ Blaze vs ShindeN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regula May 25 $4 +$1 +13%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs 163NEWS (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Group B May 25 $0 $0 -100%
Valorant: QoR vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stag May 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Valorant: University War vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regu May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: DetonatioN FocusMe vs T1 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Pacific Q May 24 $4 +$1 +23%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs FromPR (BO3) - XPortal Playoffs May 23 $5 $0 +10%
LoL: Forsaken vs DOCISK (BO3) - Rift Legends Regular Season May 21 $4 +$1 +16%
Valorant: All Gamers vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - China Evolution S May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Apex Mission Impossible vs Citadel Gaming (BO3) - North American May 09 $4 +$1 +12%
Dota 2: enjoy boys vs Inner Circle (BO3) - European Pro League Group A May 06 $4 +$1 +20%
LoL: TLN Pirates vs Esprit Shōnen (BO3) - LFL Playoffs May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Shifters vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 04 $4 +$1 +21%
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs METANOIA WOLVES (BO3) - Odys May 04 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: BIG vs Team Orange Gaming (BO3) - Prime League 1st Division Group Apr 30 $1 +$4 +614%
LoL: VfB eSports vs Eintracht Spandau (BO3) - Prime League 1st Divisio Apr 30 $5 $0 +6%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs Ei Nerd Esports (BO1) - Circuito Desaf Apr 29 $1 +$4 +291%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs ALKA (BO3) - Betboom Circuit X Mayhem São Paul Apr 29 $4 +$1 +16%
LoL: 7REX vs RED Academy (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Regular Season Apr 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Arcade Esports vs Time Waves (BO3) - ESL Challenger Le Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs ROSSMANN Centaurs (BO1) - Prime League 1st D Apr 03 $1 −$1 -98%
San Luis Potosi: Alan Magadan vs Matias Soto Apr 02 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) win the most seats in the next Apr 02 $20 $0 +0%
Nanjing Monkey King vs. Beijing Ducks Apr 01 $4 +$1 +26%
Copa Colsanitas: Carole Monnet vs Katarzyna Kawa Apr 01 $3 +$2 +50%
Rainbow Six Siege: Team Liquid vs Black Dragons e-Sports (BO1) - South Mar 31 $4 −$4 -99%
Rainbow Six Siege: Shifters vs Giggioletti (BO1) - Europe MENA League Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Falcons PH vs Team Liquid PH (BO3) - MP Mar 30 $2 +$3 +163%
Xinjiang Flying Tigers vs. Nanjing Monkey King Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
SHL: Brynaes vs. Vaexjoe Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Guangdong Southern Tigers vs. Beijing Ducks Mar 28 $3 +$2 +89%
Dubrovnik: Polona Hercog vs Tamara Korpatsch Mar 28 $2 +$2 +100%
Split: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Alexander Vasilev Mar 28 $2 +$3 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY Natus Vincere 84¢ $4 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Team Spirit 89¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Ground Zero 72¢ $4 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Resilience 90¢ $4 24h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - NODWIN C BUY 100 Thieves 81¢ $4 24h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY Ground Zero 91¢ $5 24h
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playo BUY Karmine Corp Blue 70¢ $4 3d
Dota 2: MODUS vs 1p2m (BO3) - The International Europe Open Qualifier BUY MODUS 88¢ $4 4d
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Seize the day (BO3) - The Internati BUY InterActive Philippines 89¢ $4 4d
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 G BUY Abyssal 81¢ $4 4d
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs F5 Esports (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoffs BUY F5 Esports 11¢ $1 5d
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D BUY Anubis Gaming 16¢ $1 5d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team (BO3) - Asia BUY Weibo Gaming Youth Team 14¢ $1 7d
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs Banger Gang (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Eu BUY Banger Gang 25¢ $1 7d
Valorant: Dplus vs ARETE (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY ARETE 21¢ $1 12d
Dota 2: TeamDk vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America BUY Amaru Gaming 75¢ $4 13d
Dota 2: BALU vs Team Lynx (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Europe Clo BUY Team Lynx 91¢ $5 14d
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs KUUSAMO.gg (BO3) - Elisa Open Suomi Playoffs BUY KUUSAMO.gg 15¢ $1 18d
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Fluxo (BO3) - Circuit X Base Recife Gr BUY Game Hunters 18¢ $1 18d
Valorant: 9z Team vs KRÜ Blaze (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regula BUY KRÜ Blaze 15¢ $1 19d
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO5) - Prime League BUY E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS 23¢ $1 20d
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO5) - Prime League BUY E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS 23¢ $0 20d
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs 163NEWS (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Group B BUY 163NEWS 10¢ $0 21d
Valorant: QoR vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stag BUY Pigeons 20¢ $1 21d
Valorant: University War vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regu BUY OXEN 17¢ $1 21d
Valorant: KRÜ Blaze vs ShindeN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regula BUY ShindeN 88¢ $4 22d
Valorant: DetonatioN FocusMe vs T1 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Pacific Q BUY T1 81¢ $4 23d
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs FromPR (BO3) - XPortal Playoffs BUY JiJieHao 91¢ $5 24d
LoL: Forsaken vs DOCISK (BO3) - Rift Legends Regular Season BUY Forsaken 86¢ $4 25d
Valorant: All Gamers vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - China Evolution S BUY Dragon Ranger Gaming 16¢ $1 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.86 · official $14.86 (match) · 510 history records