Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:47:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40ea…06f0 crypto 65 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate26%17W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days−$4
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$6
other 5% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-40.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -15.8% -23.9% 44% 44% -0.4%
≤30d 46 -17.6% -25.4% 33% 24% -14.4%
≤90d 65 -34.3% -40.6% 26% 20% -11.9%
all 65 -34.3% -40.6% 26% 20% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.6% 20% -11.9%
10% -46.3% 18% -20.3%
15% -51.5% 17% -28.0%
20% -56.2% 17% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses17 / 48
Open positions0
Markets (closed)65 / 65
History coverage32d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 65 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$8 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 03 $4 −$4 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 02 $3 −$1 -18%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 31 $9 −$1 -6%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 30 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 30 $6 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 30 $3 $0 -14%
XRP Up or Down - May 30, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 30 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 30 $9 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 30 $6 −$1 -19%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 30 $3 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 30 $9 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 30 $5 +$5 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET May 30 $8 $0 -4%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 30, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 30 $2 −$1 -50%
BNB Up or Down - May 29, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -47%
BNB Up or Down - May 29, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 29 $2 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 29 $7 +$3 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 27 $3 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 27 $8 +$2 +22%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET May 27 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 23 $5 +$5 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 22 $5 +$5 +114%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 21 $6 −$5 -94%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 21 $19 −$18 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET May 19 $25 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 19 $33 −$10 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 19 $13 −$13 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 18 $2 −$2 -94%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 17 $4 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 17 $16 +$34 +208%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET May 17 $10 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET May 16 $42 +$40 +94%
BNB Up or Down - May 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET May 16 $5 +$5 +101%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET May 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET May 16 $6 −$6 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 14h
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 12d
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $3 12d
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $1 13d
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $2 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 13d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $2 13d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 13d
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $8 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $9 16d
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $5 16d
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $4 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $6 16d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $3 16d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 126 history records