Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:31:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

40
0x40e9…c1ef
crypto · 394 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$61 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$51 · open −$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$29
Realized−$51
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses302 / 87
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)389 / 394
History coverage139d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 5 History 389 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$31
14 days−$38
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 80¢ 80¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Miami Marlins 36¢ 36¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 75¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Over 52¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Los Angeles Dodgers 32¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 78¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres San Diego Padres 56¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 51¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Seattle Mariners 86¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 45¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Knicks 80¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 68¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $8 −$8 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $7 +$1 +11%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 09 $6 −$6 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $4 −$4 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $5 +$6 +119%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 07 $5 +$1 +12%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 06 $9 +$5 +49%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 06 $5 +$1 +12%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $6 +$7 +124%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $5 −$5 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 03 $9 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9PM ET Jun 03 $15 −$12 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9PM ET Jun 02 $12 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Damac Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? Jun 01 $13 +$1 +5%
Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-05-19? Jun 01 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11PM ET May 30 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5PM ET May 29 $16 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs ex-Zero Tenacity - Map 1 Winner May 29 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9PM ET May 29 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3PM ET May 28 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3PM ET May 25 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6PM ET May 23 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7AM ET May 20 $18 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10PM ET May 20 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12PM ET May 19 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7AM ET May 19 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11PM ET May 19 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7AM ET May 18 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3AM ET May 18 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9PM ET May 18 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10PM ET May 18 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6AM ET May 17 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10PM ET May 17 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7AM ET May 16 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10AM ET May 15 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8AM ET May 15 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5AM ET May 15 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3AM ET May 15 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1AM ET May 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11PM ET May 15 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9PM ET May 15 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2PM ET May 14 $12 −$3 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9AM ET May 14 $9 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7AM ET May 14 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12AM ET May 14 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 51% −$25
politics 17% −$2
other 14% $0
sports 11% −$30
world 6% −$3
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 36¢ $9 29m
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $5 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $10 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 3h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $8 2d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $9 2d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 51¢ $8 2d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 56¢ $5 3d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 90¢ $7 3d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 68¢ $6 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $10 4d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 45¢ $4 4d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 45¢ $5 4d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 32¢ $7 6d
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Kansas City Royals 89¢ $5 6d
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Seattle Mariners 86¢ $8 6d
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) BUY Knicks 80¢ $5 7d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Knicks 89¢ $5 7d
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) BUY Knicks 67¢ $2 7d
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) BUY Knicks 67¢ $4 7d
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) BUY Knicks 67¢ $3 7d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Toronto Blue Jays 44¢ $6 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 78¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $3 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 10d
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 79¢ $9 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $12 11d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $8 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $13 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $16 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -50.9% -55.6% 33% 33% -60.1%
≤30d 46 -10.9% -19.4% 80% 15% -16.4%
≤90d 228 -2.5% -11.8% 81% 4% -10.8%
all 389 -2.5% -11.8% 78% 3% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 3% -10.3%
10% -20.3% 1% -18.9%
15% -28.0% 1% -26.7%
20% -35.0% 1% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.25 · official $29.25 (match) · 1725 history records