Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:35:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40e6…d66e crypto 1554 markets active 0h ago coverage 172d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 171d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,198 (-1%) realized −$7,198 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate91%1445W / 142L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$395per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$673
7 days−$683
14 days−$686
30 days−$686
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$7,898
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 -34.7% -40.9% 61% 8% -43.1%
≤30d 156 -21.6% -29.1% 73% 12% -32.6%
≤90d 650 -5.6% -14.6% 89% 11% -14.5%
all 1587 -2.9% -12.1% 91% 12% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 12% -10.8%
10% -20.5% 5% -19.3%
15% -28.2% 3% -27.1%
20% -35.2% 2% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$817) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$154 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7,198
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses1445 / 142
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1587 / 1554
History coverage172d ⚠
Avg bet$395
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1587 Trades
no open positions (131 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - November 28, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 29 $17 −$17 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 21, 2PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 21, 1PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 29, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 29 $51 −$51 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 22, 3AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 29 $122 −$122 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 1, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 29 $160 −$160 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 1PM ET Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 29, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 3, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 29 $44 −$44 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 11, 1PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 30, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 29 $23 −$23 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 22, 4AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 21, 2PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9AM ET Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 22, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 29 $23 −$23 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 27, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 11, 9AM ET Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 6, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 28, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 22, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 3, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 29 $71 −$71 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 21, 4PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 29 $31 +$9 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 29 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 29 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 29 $45 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 29 $23 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 28 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 28 $15 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $31 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $45 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $23 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $15 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $20 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records