Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:13:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40e6…cb9f sports 481 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d only
✗ bot/MM pace (370 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$117 (-4%) realized −$118 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate54%258W / 221L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day370.2pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$80
7 days+$42
14 days+$75
30 days+$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$138
other 4% −$65
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (370 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 408 +0.9% -8.7% 53% 45% -8.0%
≤30d 479 +2.6% -7.1% 54% 46% -7.0%
≤90d 479 +2.6% -7.1% 54% 46% -7.0%
all 479 +2.6% -7.1% 54% 46% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover370.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.1% 46% -7.0%
10% ← realistic here -16.0% 38% -15.9%
15% -24.1% 30% -24.0%
20% -31.6% 26% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$118
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses258 / 221
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions2
Markets (closed)479 / 481
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day370.2
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 479 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves San Francisco Giants 41¢ 46¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+11%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) San Francisco Giants 52¢ 68¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 17 $1 $0 -42%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $17 −$1 -7%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $86 −$46 -53%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $52 −$24 -46%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $6 −$1 -20%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +24%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $14 −$7 -50%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 -45%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 17 $4 −$1 -18%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 17 $3 −$1 -24%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $101 −$35 -35%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $8 +$2 +22%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $3 −$2 -51%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$5 +46%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5) Jun 17 $1 $0 +23%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 17 $1 $0 +13%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $5 $0 +9%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +146%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5) Jun 17 $2 $0 +7%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +55%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 17 $5 −$3 -54%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $29 +$18 +61%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +29%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) Jun 17 $6 $0 +4%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5) Jun 17 $4 +$1 +29%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $2 +$2 +88%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $37 +$11 +29%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $24 +$27 +111%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $2 $0 -19%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $3 +$3 +92%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5) Jun 17 $1 +$1 +134%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +79%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $1 $0 +10%
Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5) Jun 17 $2 +$2 +118%
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5) Jun 17 $1 +$1 +65%
Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5) Jun 17 $1 +$1 +93%
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida Jun 17 $1 +$3 +325%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 +$1 +140%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $1 +$1 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi SELL Nigeria 27¢ $1 31m
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Nigeria 45¢ $1 38m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 16¢ $0 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 16¢ $0 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 16¢ $0 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 29¢ $1 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 49¢ $1 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 48¢ $1 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 49¢ $1 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 82¢ $1 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 82¢ $1 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 19¢ $1 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 19¢ $1 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 19¢ $1 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $1 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 23¢ $1 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 27¢ $1 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $1 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $1 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $1 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 30¢ $1 2h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 19¢ $1 2h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 19¢ $1 2h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 19¢ $1 2h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 19¢ $1 2h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 19¢ $1 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $1 2h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 19¢ $1 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 9¢ $1 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.55 · official $12.55 (match) · 3500 history records