Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:27:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40e5…f7ec sports 138 markets active 2h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%49W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$162now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days+$120
14 days+$114
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$946
other 35% +$1,273
crypto 4% −$172
world 2% −$142
economics 1% +$67
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-29.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -20.3% -27.9% 38% 38% +33.0%
≤30d 16 -41.0% -46.6% 31% 31% -0.5%
≤90d 69 -56.5% -60.6% 20% 20% -64.4%
all 134 -21.6% -29.1% 37% 35% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.1% 35% -8.5%
10% -35.9% 31% -17.3%
15% -42.1% 28% -25.3%
20% -47.7% 22% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 42% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -62% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -56% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$42 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$162
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses49 / 85
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)134 / 138
History coverage174d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $96 $91 −$5 (-5%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 54¢ 55¢ $54 $54 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+48%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $40 +$48 +122%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $69 +$101 +146%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $69 +$48 +70%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $45 −$44 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$6 -80%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $25 +$15 +60%
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $35 +$9 +27%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 06 $54 −$25 -46%
UFC Fight Night: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweig Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 06 $25 −$24 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $25 −$24 -99%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $63 −$46 -72%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 08 $7 −$7 -98%
76ers vs. Knicks May 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $11 +$11 +101%
76ers vs. Knicks May 05 $8 −$3 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Apr 09 $5 −$4 -78%
Solana Up or Down - April 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 09 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 09 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Apr 08 $10 +$17 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Apr 08 $7 +$5 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Apr 05 $59 −$56 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Apr 05 $18 −$17 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Apr 05 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Apr 05 $6 +$4 +60%
Mavericks vs. Kings Apr 02 $45 −$45 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Apr 02 $30 −$30 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Apr 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 02 $22 −$22 -100%
Rams vs. Panthers Apr 02 $141 −$43 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Apr 02 $9 −$9 -100%
UFC 324: Lewis vs. Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card) Apr 02 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) Apr 02 $94 −$56 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Apr 02 $18 −$14 -75%
Trail Blazers vs. Warriors Apr 02 $49 −$49 -100%
Lakers vs. Pelicans Apr 02 $20 −$20 -100%
UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Apr 02 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading? Apr 02 $35 −$35 -100%
Ravens vs. Steelers Apr 02 $15 +$10 +69%
Timberwolves vs. Heat Apr 02 $33 −$33 -100%
Spurs vs. Grizzlies Apr 02 $64 +$48 +75%
Jazz vs. Trail Blazers Apr 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Hornets vs. Clippers Apr 02 $693 −$693 -100%
Jazz vs. Bulls Apr 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Kings vs. Grizzlies Apr 02 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Bantamweight, M Apr 02 $198 −$198 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $54 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 28h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 28h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 47h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 99¢ $88 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $40 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 89¢ $170 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 36¢ $49 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 44¢ $45 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $118 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $69 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 11d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 24¢ $8 11d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $99 13d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Belal Muhammad 50¢ $25 18d
UFC Fight Night: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweig BUY Ariane Carnelossi 26¢ $10 19d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main SELL Belal Muhammad 49¢ $28 19d
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main BUY Santiago Luna 48¢ $25 19d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Belal Muhammad 50¢ $30 19d
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai BUY Brendan Allen 62¢ $25 19d
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) BUY Marcus McGhee 78¢ $35 19d
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) BUY Bruno Silva 54¢ $25 19d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $173 19d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 22d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 22d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $15 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $162.32 · official $162.36 (match) · 395 history records