Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:21:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40e1…30ff crypto 631 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$576 (-5%) realized −$574 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate49%307W / 318L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$82
7 days+$314
14 days+$362
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$813
sports 12% +$196
other 9% +$276
politics 7% $0
world 5% −$338
finance 1% −$97
tech 0% +$2
culture 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +12.2% +1.5% 47% 37% +18.4%
≤30d 51 -10.8% -19.3% 37% 25% -7.3%
≤90d 245 +1.0% -8.6% 38% 27% -6.2%
all 625 -0.3% -9.8% 49% 38% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 38% -16.0%
10% -18.4% 29% -24.1%
15% -26.3% 22% -31.4%
20% -33.6% 18% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$574
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses307 / 318
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions5
Markets (closed)625 / 631
History coverage115d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 625 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Saudi Arabia 45¢ 44¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? Yes 41¢ 36¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 200 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $31 +$53 +172%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 20 $10 $0 -2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $30 −$1 -4%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $30 +$28 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 -26%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $45 +$3 +7%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $441 +$208 +47%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 −$5 -11%
Will the US federal government take a stake in Samsung Electronics Co. Jun 19 $10 −$1 -10%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 18 $50 +$14 +28%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $51 −$6 -12%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 17 $10 $0 -0%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$84 +165%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +61%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $141 −$30 -22%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $122 +$3 +2%
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 -2%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 12 $10 −$7 -72%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $48 −$20 -42%
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$84 +83%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 $0 -4%
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? Jun 12 $10 $0 -1%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? Jun 12 $10 $0 -3%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 −$2 -8%
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? Jun 12 $50 −$3 -6%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -10%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 12 $10 +$1 +6%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $10 $0 -0%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $11 +$1 +12%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 10 $10 +$4 +36%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -94%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 06 $100 $0 -0%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election by less than 10 Jun 05 $10 +$4 +43%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $20 −$9 -42%
Will the Democratic Party win 13 upper-level local government races? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 May 31 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Kim Kwan-young win the 2026 Jeonbuk Province Gubernatorial Electi May 31 $303 −$300 -99%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? May 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? May 28 $10 +$4 +45%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 45¢ $30 1h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL No 46¢ $10 23h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $12 23h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 36¢ $31 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 63¢ $29 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $30 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 2d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 26¢ $48 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 75¢ $649 2d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 23¢ $45 2d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 62¢ $45 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $9 2d
Will the US federal government take a stake in Samsung Electronics Co. SELL No 82¢ $9 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $280 2d
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) SELL Uzbekistan 93¢ $64 3d
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 72¢ $50 3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 40¢ $45 3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 44¢ $51 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 21¢ $10 3d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $10 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 55¢ $30 4d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $51 4d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 27¢ $8 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 72¢ $30 6d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 79¢ $109 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 51¢ $105 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.09 · official $41.09 (match) · 2073 history records