Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:26:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40de…1bb9 politics 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 400d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%3W / 78L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$4
other 38% −$4
sports 9% −$1
culture 6% −$1
economics 4% −$1
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -50.1% -54.8% 0% 0% -11.1%
≤90d 3 -44.6% -49.9% 0% 0% -11.6%
all 81 -8.2% -17.0% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 0% -9.7%
10% -24.9% 0% -18.4%
15% -32.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -38.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

400d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses3 / 78
Open positions1
Markets (closed)81 / 82
History coverage400d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 85¢ $56 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $57 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $1 $0 -34%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Mar 09 $57 $0 -0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 24 $56 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Rese Feb 20 $57 $0 +0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 17 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 01 $58 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Jan 28 $57 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 26 $56 $0 +0%
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? Jan 21 $56 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 18 $58 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 15 $306 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 12 $57 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 10 $57 $0 -0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 08 $1 $0 -50%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Jan 07 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 01 $117 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 30 $116 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 28 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 25 $57 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 21 $58 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 13 $59 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 11 $58 $0 -1%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 05 $58 $0 -0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 04 $1 $0 -33%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 03 $56 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 03 $126 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 01 $4 $0 -9%
Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 202 Nov 30 $126 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 26 $60 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 24 $58 $0 -0%
Will Eminem be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Nov 24 $1 $0 -50%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 20 $61 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 18 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 18 $1 $0 -50%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 16 $59 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 15 $1 $0 -17%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 09 $116 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 09 $2 $0 -17%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 08 $61 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 03 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 01 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 29 $1 $0 -42%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 22 $60 $0 -0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 16 $123 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 12 $125 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 10 $62 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 07 $122 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 03 $62 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $56 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 7d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $57 7d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $57 16d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 40d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $57 107d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $57 115d
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $56 120d
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $56 122d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 122d
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Rese BUY No 100¢ $57 125d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 125d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 126d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 126d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 134d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $58 143d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $58 144d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $57 146d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $57 148d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $56 149d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $56 152d
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? BUY No 100¢ $56 155d
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $58 156d
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $58 159d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $59 160d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $59 162d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $57 163d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $57 164d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $56 164d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $57 167d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.48 · official $55.48 (match) · 353 history records