Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:37:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40de…66bd weather 624 markets active 1h ago coverage 396d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$289 (-1%) realized −$294 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate88%531W / 74L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1,560now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days−$76
14 days−$22
30 days−$554
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 51% −$520
other 23% −$72
politics 16% +$151
sports 9% +$79
crypto 1% −$2
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 +1.2% -8.4% 97% 1% -10.6%
≤30d 296 -0.3% -9.8% 93% 3% -11.4%
≤90d 480 -4.0% -13.1% 90% 4% -10.3%
all 605 -3.8% -13.0% 88% 12% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 12% -10.2%
10% -21.3% 7% -18.8%
15% -28.9% 4% -26.7%
20% -35.9% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$21 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

396d coverage
Net worth$1,560
Realized−$294
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses531 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions19
Markets (closed)605 / 624
History coverage396d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 605 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 98¢ 96¢ $294 $288 −$6 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 20? No 99¢ 98¢ $154 $153 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C or higher on June 18? No 97¢ 99¢ $147 $151 +$4 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $136 $136 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 20? No 94¢ 95¢ $129 $131 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $104 $105 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 19? No 98¢ 99¢ $98 $99 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? No 96¢ 93¢ $85 $83 −$2 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C or below on June 18? No 93¢ 100¢ $65 $69 +$5 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 20? No 97¢ 97¢ $49 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C or higher on June 20? No 94¢ 92¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 20? No 96¢ 92¢ $34 $32 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 19? No 98¢ 99¢ $31 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 19? No 97¢ 98¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 18? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 20? No 93¢ 95¢ $14 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 20? No 97¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 20? Jun 18 $1 $0 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C or higher on June 19? Jun 18 $49 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 19? Jun 18 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 19? Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 39°C or higher on June 19 Jun 18 $213 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 19? Jun 18 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 18? Jun 18 $141 +$1 +1%
Ezri Konsa: 2+ assists Jun 18 $15 $0 +2%
Elliot Anderson: 1+ assists Jun 18 $109 +$9 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +5%
Ivan Toney: 4+ shots Jun 17 $25 $0 +2%
Marin Pongračić: 2+ assists Jun 17 $25 $0 +2%
Francisco Conceição: 5+ shots Jun 17 $10 $0 +5%
Gonçalo Guedes: 4+ shots Jun 17 $10 $0 +5%
Gonçalo Guedes: 2+ assists Jun 17 $25 $0 +2%
Gonçalo Ramos: 2+ assists Jun 17 $21 $0 +2%
Cédric Bakambu: 2+ assists Jun 17 $13 $0 +2%
Trincão: 2+ assists Jun 17 $25 $0 +2%
Francisco Conceição: 2+ assists Jun 17 $25 $0 +2%
Samu Costa: 4+ shots Jun 17 $25 $0 +2%
Samu Costa: 2+ assists Jun 17 $25 $0 +2%
Saša Kalajdžić: 2+ assists Jun 17 $27 +$1 +2%
Ali Olwan: 2+ assists Jun 17 $38 +$1 +2%
Mousa Ta'mari: 2+ assists Jun 17 $42 +$1 +2%
Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ assists Jun 17 $47 +$1 +2%
Nicolás Paz: 2+ assists Jun 17 $32 +$1 +2%
Amine Gouiri: 2+ assists Jun 17 $32 +$1 +2%
José Manuel López: 2+ assists Jun 17 $26 +$1 +2%
Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ assists Jun 17 $41 +$1 +2%
Giuliano Simeone: 2+ assists Jun 17 $26 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C or higher on June 16 Jun 16 $208 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $109 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $208 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
Lucas Digne: 2+ assists Jun 16 $36 +$1 +2%
Maghnes Akliouche: 2+ assists Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Warren Zaïre-Emery: 2+ assists Jun 16 $46 +$1 +2%
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $56 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $64 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $197 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $129 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $18 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $38 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $24 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 16? Jun 15 $256 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 20? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 39m
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $98 44m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 20? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 20? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C or higher on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C or below on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 20? BUY No 93¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $139 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $23 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 96¢ $34 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 39°C or higher on June 19 SELL No 100¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 39°C or higher on June 19 SELL No 100¢ $70 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 20? BUY No 97¢ $49 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $60 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $48 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $94 1h
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $196 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 20? BUY No 97¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $98 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 20? BUY No 94¢ $129 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C or higher on June 20? SELL No 95¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C or higher on June 20? BUY No 94¢ $44 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 39°C or higher on June 19 SELL No 100¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 39°C or higher on June 19 SELL No 100¢ $9 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,560.25 · official $1,560.23 (match) · 2001 history records