Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:35:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40da…6a39 crypto 215 markets active 5d ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (128 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,047 (-6%) realized −$2,047 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate48%103W / 112L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day128.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$3,241
world 0% −$23
other 0% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (128 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -34.8% -41.1% 30% 23% -74.1%
≤30d 215 -16.1% -24.1% 48% 40% -18.6%
≤90d 215 -16.1% -24.1% 48% 40% -18.6%
all 215 -16.1% -24.1% 48% 40% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover128.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.1% 40% -18.6%
10% ← realistic here -31.4% 28% -26.4%
15% -38.0% 22% -33.5%
20% -44.1% 16% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$65 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,047
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses103 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)215 / 215
History coverage6d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day128.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 215 Trades
no open positions (44 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $2,345 −$2,345 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 11 $31 −$16 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $31 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 11 $31 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$7 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $31 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$4 +39%
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $10 −$3 -30%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $140 −$23 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $9 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$23 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 10 $21 −$9 -45%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -94%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $35 −$34 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $267 −$6 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $166 −$25 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $104 −$36 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $72 +$16 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $42 +$49 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $67 +$25 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $84 −$4 -4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $105 −$41 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 09 $41 −$4 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 09 $26 −$10 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 09 $16 −$3 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 09 $21 +$11 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 09 $16 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 09 $36 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$4 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 08 $4,079 +$109 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 08 $714 +$394 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 08 $1,570 +$179 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 08 $1,032 −$520 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 08 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 08 $130 −$100 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 08 $1,549 −$384 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 08 $1,525 +$180 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 08 $514 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 08 $519 +$56 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 08 $52 −$16 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 08 $156 −$42 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 08 $52 −$27 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $839 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $877 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $630 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $31 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $24 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $31 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $35 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $31 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $31 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $31 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $38 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $31 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $31 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $30 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 5d
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $7 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $117 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $11 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 810 history records