Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:23:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40d9…ffa1 other 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$917 (-24%) realized −$895 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate42%8W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day21.1pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$288now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$286
sports 32% −$110
crypto 16% −$600
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -3.2% -12.4% 42% 37% -35.2%
≤30d 19 -3.2% -12.4% 42% 37% -35.2%
≤90d 19 -3.2% -12.4% 42% 37% -35.2%
all 19 -3.2% -12.4% 42% 37% -35.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 37% -35.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 26% -41.4%
15% -28.4% 21% -47.0%
20% -35.4% 21% -52.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$139 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$288
Realized−$895
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses8 / 11
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions7
Markets (closed)19 / 26
History coverage4d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day21.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-2%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $65 $64 −$1 (-2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 79¢ 60¢ $81 $62 −$19 (-24%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+5%)
England to score first vs. Croatia? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $91 +$31 +35%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$29 -56%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $191 −$79 -41%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $103 +$4 +4%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $384 −$384 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $201 +$37 +19%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $161 +$84 +52%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$39 -77%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $103 +$91 +89%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $120 −$95 -79%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $600 −$600 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $122 −$45 -37%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$17 -56%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $60 +$133 +222%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $80 −$53 -66%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$12 -79%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $26 +$76 +289%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $850 +$96 +11%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $199 −$174 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $19 27m
England to score first vs. Croatia? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 59m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $16 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $16 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $26 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $26 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $40 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $122 15h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $40 16h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $19 16h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 18h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $41 18h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $25 18h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $41 18h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $41 18h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 18h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $41 18h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $50 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 87¢ $106 19h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $27 19h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $41 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 92¢ $22 19h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $19 19h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $80 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $238 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $201 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $288.06 · official $288.06 (match) · 81 history records