Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:22:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40d8…f68d crypto 249 markets active 0h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$625 (-8%) realized −$625 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate35%87W / 162L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$91
7 days+$41
14 days+$157
30 days+$157
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$823
sports 14% +$110
weather 1% −$16
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -20.6% -28.1% 30% 25% -8.1%
≤30d 59 -19.1% -26.8% 32% 27% -4.9%
≤90d 249 -17.8% -25.6% 35% 30% -17.7%
all 249 -17.8% -25.6% 35% 30% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.6% 30% -17.7%
10% -32.8% 25% -25.5%
15% -39.3% 21% -32.7%
20% -45.2% 17% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$17 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$625
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses87 / 162
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)249 / 249
History coverage74d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 249 Trades
no open positions (31 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 23 $15 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 23 $53 +$17 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 23 $55 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 23 $672 +$28 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$12 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 23 $14 +$10 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 23 $51 −$49 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 23 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 23 $117 +$55 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 23 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$14 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 23 $9 +$5 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 23 $13 +$6 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 23 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 23 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 23 $53 −$51 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 23 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 23 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $17 −$17 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $39 +$6 +16%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 21 $9 +$91 +1011%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -94%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -95%
United States vs. Australia: Second half draw? Jun 19 $387 +$8 +2%
United States vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $65 +$5 +8%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $15 +$35 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $22 +$78 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $330 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $15 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $556 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $117 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $47 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $75 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.20 · official $0.20 (match) · 1073 history records