Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:35:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40d7…fba4 other 28 markets active 14h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$22 (+3%) realized +$29 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate52%14W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$86
14 days−$86
30 days−$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$35
crypto 14% +$61
sports 13% −$56
world 8% −$40
weather 2% −$10
tech 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -21.2% -28.7% 38% 23% -29.2%
≤30d 14 -18.2% -26.0% 43% 29% -27.3%
≤90d 22 -3.7% -12.9% 45% 36% -25.5%
all 27 +14.4% +3.5% 52% 41% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.5% 41% -9.6%
10% -6.4% 33% -18.3%
15% -15.4% 30% -26.2%
20% -23.7% 26% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +50% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$21 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$29
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses14 / 13
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage178d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes $10 $3 −$7 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $43 −$40 -94%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -95%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 +$50 +236%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -94%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $21 $0 +1%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $42 −$40 -94%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -94%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $21 +$21 +97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$38 +185%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $113 +$5 +4%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 01 $21 +$4 +21%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $11 +$10 +97%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 2? May 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? May 16 $30 −$30 -100%
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026? May 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in April? May 16 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 16 $10 +$28 +285%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $11 +$15 +145%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 08 $10 $0 +5%
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Feb 23 $20 −$5 -26%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in January? Feb 07 $20 +$92 +459%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? Jan 26 $20 +$5 +23%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 01 $10 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $11 14h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 33h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $21 42h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $21 42h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $21 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $21 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $21 2d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 33¢ $21 2d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $21 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $21 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $21 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $21 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $21 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $58 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 4d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $21 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $118 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $113 11d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 79¢ $21 16d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 30d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 46¢ $11 30d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 31d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 37¢ $11 31d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 67d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in April? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 75d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 2? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 98d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $10 100d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $10 105d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.93 · official $10.71 · 57 history records