Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:32:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40d5…1c74 crypto 213 markets active 1h ago coverage 209d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,882 (-21%) realized −$5,918 · open +$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%81W / 131L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$994
30 days−$1,479
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$5,508
sports 6% −$1,091
economics 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 132 -20.6% -28.2% 40% 39% -37.6%
all 212 -19.8% -27.5% 38% 36% -36.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.5% 36% -36.7%
10% -34.4% 30% -42.8%
15% -40.8% 20% -48.3%
20% -46.6% 17% -53.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -27% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$85 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

209d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized−$5,918
Unrealized+$36
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses81 / 131
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)212 / 213
History coverage209d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 212 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Up 32¢ 55¢ $50 $86 +$36 (+73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 137 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $175 −$173 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $819 −$819 -100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $496 −$485 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 18? May 18 $255 −$239 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Apr 30 $905 −$907 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6AM ET Apr 29 $516 +$118 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5PM ET Apr 27 $800 −$800 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4PM ET Apr 27 $620 −$592 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3PM ET Apr 27 $1,104 +$327 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2PM ET Apr 27 $1,311 +$190 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Apr 27 $348 −$341 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Apr 27 $195 +$71 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Apr 27 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Apr 27 $410 +$380 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 27 $90 −$87 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 27 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 23? Apr 22 $34 −$32 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 21? Apr 20 $100 −$93 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Apr 17 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11AM ET Apr 17 $180 −$91 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 17 $50 −$48 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 17 $50 +$28 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Apr 17 $238 −$233 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Apr 17 $243 −$200 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6AM ET Apr 17 $539 −$504 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5AM ET Apr 17 $390 +$110 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 15 $80 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 15 $90 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Apr 15 $180 +$20 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1PM ET Apr 15 $400 −$400 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9AM ET Apr 15 $172 +$27 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8AM ET Apr 15 $600 +$400 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7AM ET Apr 15 $400 −$400 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6AM ET Apr 15 $835 +$65 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5AM ET Apr 15 $1,080 +$245 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4AM ET Apr 15 $2 −$2 -93%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Apr 15 $100 +$388 +388%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2PM ET Apr 14 $492 −$467 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1PM ET Apr 14 $200 −$100 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12PM ET Apr 14 $700 +$300 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11AM ET Apr 14 $457 −$8 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Apr 14 $201 −$201 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Apr 14 $400 +$100 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Apr 14 $3 +$2 +82%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 14? Apr 14 $10 −$9 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 13 $1 +$2 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Apr 11 $40 −$39 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $52 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $122 8d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $54 8d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $819 8d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC 20¢ $496 22d
Ethereum Up or Down on May 18? BUY Up 3¢ $42 34d
Ethereum Up or Down on May 18? BUY Up 7¢ $213 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $300 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $0 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $316 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $84 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $205 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $634 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $516 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $189 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $120 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $120 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $27 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $67 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $20 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $120 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $120 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.43 · official $86.43 (match) · 1599 history records