Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:54:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
40 0x40d5…acd1 sports 447 markets active 0h ago coverage 694d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$332 (+1%) realized +$323 · open +$9
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%204W / 231L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$143per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$186est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$878now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$312
7 days+$197
14 days+$3,390
30 days+$3,100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$2,563
other 11% −$1,962
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +21.9% +10.3% 47% 47% +10.5%
≤30d 41 -12.7% -21.0% 34% 34% +64.3%
≤90d 109 -8.9% -17.6% 41% 41% +29.3%
all 435 -8.3% -17.0% 47% 46% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 46% -8.7%
10% -24.9% 44% -17.4%
15% -32.2% 41% -25.4%
20% -38.8% 32% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -2% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$127 vs −$109 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

694d coverage
Net worth$878
Realized+$323
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses204 / 231
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$186
Open positions7
Markets (closed)435 / 447
History coverage694d
Avg bet$143
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 435 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $198 $198 −$0 (-0%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 72¢ $190 $197 +$7 (+4%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $106 $107 +$0 (+0%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $104 $106 +$1 (+1%)
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $64 $64 +$0 (+0%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 20¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 70 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Germany win on 20 Jun 21 $51 +$251 +490%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $126 +$60 +48%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $209 +$141 +67%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $25 +$39 +154%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $25 +$38 +150%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $36 +$57 +161%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $16 +$9 +57%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $27 −$27 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $28 −$28 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $155 −$153 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $68 −$67 -99%
Will Wyndham Clark finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 14 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 14 $55 −$53 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $544 +$2,702 +496%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $164 −$162 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $451 +$557 +124%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $23 +$26 +112%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $23 −$23 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $506 +$298 +59%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $173 −$171 -98%
Will Adam Scott finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 the Memorial Tourname Jun 08 $19 +$31 +158%
Will Scottie Scheffler finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 the Memorial To Jun 04 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented b Jun 04 $28 −$27 -98%
Will Ben Griffin win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Wor Jun 04 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented Jun 04 $27 −$26 -98%
Will Alex Smalley finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 the Memorial Tourna Jun 04 $22 −$22 -98%
Will Hideki Matsuyama finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 the Memorial To Jun 04 $23 −$22 -98%
Will Hideki Matsuyama finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 the Memorial To Jun 04 $13 −$13 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $3 +$2 +82%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 23 $551 +$99 +18%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $191 −$189 -99%
Will Mac Meissner finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Ne May 22 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Blades Brown win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? May 22 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Mac Meissner win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? May 22 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Blades Brown finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nel May 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? May 22 $40 −$39 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $28 +$14 +52%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $101 −$99 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $43 +$37 +86%
Will Chris Gotterup finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $25 +$24 +95%
Will Ludvig Aberg finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $46 +$48 +105%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai May 17 $5 +$5 +82%
UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main C May 17 $29 −$29 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Modestas Bukauskas vs. Christian Edwards (Light Heavy May 17 $12 +$4 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 9m
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 12m
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $203 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $98 1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $56 1h
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $126 19h
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $203 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 30¢ $23 19h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY 18¢ $26 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $126 19h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Germany win on 20 BUY 17¢ $51 20h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 30¢ $51 38h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY 39¢ $25 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY 39¢ $25 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06- BUY $12 2d
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 4d
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $9 4d
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 38¢ $10 4d
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $64 4d
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $23 4d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 63¢ $16 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 38¢ $36 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY 55¢ $56 5d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $27 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $878.36 · official $901.36 · 1595 history records