Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:33:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40d0…73ce sports 10 markets active 4d ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$70 (-48%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -66% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -70% what you keep after slip
Net edge-70%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%2W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-69.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -65.7% -69.0% 20% 20% -54.9%
≤30d 10 -65.7% -69.0% 20% 20% -54.9%
≤90d 10 -65.7% -69.0% 20% 20% -54.9%
all 10 -65.7% -69.0% 20% 20% -54.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -69.0% 20% -54.9%
10% -72.0% 10% -59.2%
15% -74.7% 0% -63.1%
20% -77.1% 0% -66.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -66% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$10 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses2 / 8
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage3d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $25 −$24 -99%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $8 −$8 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $3 +$1 +26%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $43 −$19 -45%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $36 +$4 +12%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $9 −$3 -33%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 54¢ $25 4d
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Heretics 9¢ $3 5d
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Heretics 23¢ $3 5d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 2¢ $3 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 5¢ $3 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 36¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 56¢ $4 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 43¢ $3 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Vitality 98¢ $41 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 87¢ $36 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 38¢ $23 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 52¢ $23 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 43¢ $20 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 7¢ $3 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 5¢ $3 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 14¢ $3 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 32¢ $6 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 16¢ $3 6d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY Global Esports 36¢ $5 6d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY Global Esports 57¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 21 history records