Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:45:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40cf…2748 sports 394 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 43d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (79 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,079 (-4%) realized −$6,070 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate56%241W / 191L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$415per market
Trades / day79.3pace
Fees−$2,624est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 43d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$16,731
other 0% +$35
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (79 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 -50.8% -55.5% 34% 21% -71.8%
≤30d 273 -24.4% -31.6% 53% 33% -38.9%
≤90d 432 -22.1% -29.5% 56% 33% -35.0%
all 432 -22.1% -29.5% 56% 33% -35.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover79.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.5% 33% -35.0%
10% ← realistic here -36.3% 18% -41.2%
15% -42.4% 9% -46.9%
20% -48.1% 4% -52.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -16% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$339 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized−$6,070
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses241 / 191
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$2,624
Open positions1
Markets (closed)432 / 394
History coverage43d ⚠
Avg bet$415
Trades / day79.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 432 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Athletics 89¢ 81¢ $107 $98 −$9 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 123 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Ultra Prime vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $1,318 −$1,318 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $355 −$355 -100%
LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $3,058 −$3,058 -100%
LoL: GIANTX vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $1,030 −$1,449 -141%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B Jun 17 $2,179 −$2,179 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Falcons Force - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $105 −$105 -100%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $1,070 −$1,070 -100%
Counter-Strike: Galorys vs Isurus (BO3) - ESL Challenger League South Jun 17 $2,399 −$2,399 -100%
LoL: Shifters vs Team Vitality - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $639 −$577 -90%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $477 −$477 -100%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Jun 17 $1,275 −$1,275 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Jun 17 $1,734 −$1,645 -95%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs HANJIN BRION Challengers - Game 2 Win Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $100 −$141 -142%
Game Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs Citadel Gaming (+1.5) Jun 17 $391 −$391 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics vs SK Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $706 −$706 -100%
LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $2,342 −$2,172 -93%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qual Jun 17 $3,017 −$3,669 -122%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $395 −$395 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Ruzic vs Tormo Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: GIANTX vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $50 −$215 -430%
LoL: LYON vs Sentinels - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $343 −$343 -100%
Counter-Strike: Messiah vs SSSghoul (BO3) - UKIC Masters Division Play Jun 17 $571 −$571 -100%
Saint-Malo: Bianca Andreescu vs Yue Yuan Jun 17 $201 −$361 -179%
Counter-Strike: Galorys vs Isurus - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $473 −$473 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA fe vs paiN Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Eternal Fire - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $463 −$488 -105%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $312 −$312 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $453 −$453 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Tricked - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $329 −$329 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $417 −$417 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $1,180 −$1,180 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $1,881 −$1,881 -100%
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs BIG Academy (BO3) - United21 Play Jun 17 $1,429 −$1,429 -100%
Counter-Strike: P2N vs 3DMAX Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $120 −$120 -100%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $830 −$830 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $119 +$11 +10%
Parma: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 16 $4 +$1 +14%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $450 −$76 -17%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 16 $290 +$42 +14%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $126 +$22 +18%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $235 +$47 +20%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $227 +$49 +22%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $221 +$6 +3%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $214 +$6 +3%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $156 +$59 +38%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $272 −$69 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 89¢ $107 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 91¢ $119 1h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL ex-RUBY 63¢ $98 13h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL ex-RUBY 63¢ $13 13h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL ex-RUBY 63¢ $26 13h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL ex-RUBY 63¢ $52 13h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL ex-RUBY 63¢ $3 13h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL ex-RUBY 63¢ $27 13h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 53¢ $3 13h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 53¢ $3 13h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 53¢ $3 13h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 53¢ $3 13h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 53¢ $3 13h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 53¢ $3 13h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 53¢ $16 13h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 53¢ $5 13h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 53¢ $16 13h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 54¢ $138 13h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL illwill 47¢ $3 13h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL illwill 47¢ $2 13h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL illwill 47¢ $2 13h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL illwill 47¢ $15 13h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL illwill 47¢ $16 13h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL illwill 47¢ $14 13h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL illwill 47¢ $16 13h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL illwill 47¢ $30 13h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL illwill 47¢ $43 13h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL illwill 47¢ $5 13h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL illwill 34¢ $3 13h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL illwill 34¢ $5 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.79 · official $97.80 (match) · 3500 history records