Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:45:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
40 0x40cd…c0a3 other 126 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$89 (-0%) realized −$89 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate19%24W / 100L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$767per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1,193now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$8
14 days−$19
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$47
other 38% −$171
sports 14% +$124
culture 3% −$3
economics 2% −$2
crypto 1% +$1
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 85 -9.8% -18.4% 9% 6% -10.2%
all 124 +0.8% -8.8% 19% 15% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 15% -9.6%
10% -17.5% 15% -18.3%
15% -25.5% 14% -26.2%
20% -32.8% 10% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,076) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$8 · ×3.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$1,193
Realized−$89
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses24 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)124 / 126
History coverage123d
Avg bet$767
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $625 $626 +$0 (+0%)
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $567 $567 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,029 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1,660 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,076 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,034 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,478 −$2 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $2,359 −$3 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,146 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $922 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $2,565 −$3 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $933 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $2,300 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 04 $424 +$1 +0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $786 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $1,351 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $583 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $1,260 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $650 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $732 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $1,050 −$2 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $1,560 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,053 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $1,057 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 20 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $1,157 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 22 $1,073 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $909 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $842 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $1,577 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,620 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $1,477 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $1,637 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,346 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,419 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $670 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $696 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $876 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $930 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $800 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $785 −$1 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 08 $743 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $849 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 05 $1,830 −$2 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 04 $1,199 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $1,350 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 03 $305 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $1,707 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $1,915 −$2 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 02 $493 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $559 −$1 -0%
Based FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 01 $39 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $567 1h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $625 27h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,028 3d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,029 4d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,044 4d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,045 5d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,074 5d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,076 5d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,032 6d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,034 6d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,003 6d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,004 6d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,133 10d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,135 11d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,144 11d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,146 12d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $920 12d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $922 12d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,047 13d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,048 13d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $931 13d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $933 13d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $842 14d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $843 14d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $786 17d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $786 18d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $767 18d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $768 18d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $582 20d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $583 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,192.51 · official $1,192.51 (match) · 405 history records