Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:40:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40cd…5c75 crypto 1864 markets active 1h ago coverage 37d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 36d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (65 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$3,124 (+18%) realized +$3,124 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate64%1065W / 608L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day65.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 37d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,069
sports 0% +$102
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (65 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 493 -14.5% -22.7% 48% 48% -74.2%
≤30d 1413 +10.9% +0.3% 63% 62% -28.5%
≤90d 1673 +8.8% -1.5% 64% 60% -24.1%
all 1673 +8.8% -1.5% 64% 60% -24.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover65.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.5% 60% -24.1%
10% ← realistic here -11.0% 60% -31.4%
15% -19.6% 59% -38.0%
20% -27.5% 54% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$14 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,124
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses1065 / 608
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1673 / 1864
History coverage37d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day65.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1673 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - May 2, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 19, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $123 −$123 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 7, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 1, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 7, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 1, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $7 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $7 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $7 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records