Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:58:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40cd…a8e1 crypto 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (62 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$24 (+12%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%21W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day62.2pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$38
other 13% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (62 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -17.0% -24.9% 50% 50% -21.0%
≤30d 42 -17.0% -24.9% 50% 50% -21.0%
≤90d 42 -17.0% -24.9% 50% 50% -21.0%
all 42 -17.0% -24.9% 50% 50% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.9% 50% -21.0%
10% ← realistic here -32.1% 43% -28.5%
15% -38.6% 38% -35.4%
20% -44.6% 21% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses21 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day62.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 26 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 26 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$2 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 26 $2 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 26 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 26 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$10 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 26 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 26 $7 −$6 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 25 $24 +$8 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 25 $4 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? Jun 25 $1 +$1 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 25 $3 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 25 $3 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 25 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 25 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 25 $2 +$2 +79%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $24 +$13 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $4 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 101 history records