Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:36:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
40 0x40cc…4c9a other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$243 (+37%) realized +$151 · open +$92
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +31% what you keep after slip
Net edge+31%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit8%portable
Net worth$335now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$251
sports 16% +$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+36.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +50.5% +36.1% 50% 50% +48.2%
≤30d 8 +50.5% +36.1% 50% 50% +48.2%
≤90d 8 +50.5% +36.1% 50% 50% +48.2%
all 8 +50.5% +36.1% 50% 50% +48.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +36.1% 50% +48.2%
10% +23.1% 50% +34.0%
15% +11.2% 50% +21.1%
20% +0.3% 50% +9.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +64% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +50% · $-wt +64% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$25 · ×3.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.58 per $1 lost it wins $3.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$335
Realized+$151
Unrealized+$92
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)8 / 12
History coverage4d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit8%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Yes 46¢ 100¢ $94 $204 +$110 (+117%)
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+2%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-5%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 23¢ 16¢ $50 $34 −$16 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 17 $23 +$91 +395%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $53 +$65 +124%
Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals Jun 17 $26 −$26 -98%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $102 +$103 +101%
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals Jun 16 $29 −$4 -12%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $102 +$98 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jonathan David: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $96 1h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $23 27h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $53 27h
Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $26 27h
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals SELL Yes 23¢ $25 2d
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists BUY Yes 26¢ $20 2d
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $29 2d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $102 2d
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 24¢ $50 2d
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 2d
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 2d
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists BUY Yes 33¢ $51 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 100¢ $200 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $102 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $335.22 · official $335.22 (match) · 18 history records