Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:42:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40cc…1be7 crypto 397 markets active 0h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,119 (-18%) realized −$2,119 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate29%114W / 283L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$167
7 days−$534
14 days−$534
30 days−$926
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,676
finance 0% −$4
tech 0% −$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-27.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -46.9% -52.0% 18% 16% -57.3%
≤30d 138 -16.9% -24.8% 29% 25% -33.1%
≤90d 346 -21.5% -29.0% 27% 24% -30.4%
all 397 -20.2% -27.8% 29% 26% -30.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.8% 26% -30.0%
10% -34.7% 23% -36.7%
15% -41.0% 21% -42.8%
20% -46.8% 19% -48.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$20 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,119
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses114 / 283
Open positions0
Markets (closed)397 / 397
History coverage104d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 397 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$43 +205%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$33 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $22 +$7 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $17 +$54 +318%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $57 −$25 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $37 +$14 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$20 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $22 −$6 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $58 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $17 −$15 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $31 −$29 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$7 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $32 −$6 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $63 −$43 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 10 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 10 $12 −$5 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 01 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 01 $22 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 01 $36 −$28 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 01 $53 −$41 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 31 $16 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $10 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $11 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $11 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $11 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $64 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $11 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $11 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $11 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $11 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1848 history records