Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:08:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40cc…9702 weather 107 markets active 0h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,747 (-7%) realized −$1,746 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate68%71W / 33L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$234per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,092
7 days−$2,092
14 days−$3,964
30 days−$3,964
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 87% −$9
politics 13% −$1,871
crypto 0% +$7
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +16.7% +5.6% 47% 41% -88.7%
≤30d 52 +14.7% +3.7% 48% 38% -74.0%
≤90d 104 +27.1% +15.0% 68% 35% -16.4%
all 104 +27.1% +15.0% 68% 35% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.0% 35% -16.4%
10% +4.0% 33% -24.4%
15% -6.1% 29% -31.7%
20% -15.3% 19% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +39% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$130 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$1,746
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses71 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)104 / 107
History coverage48d
Avg bet$234
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Up 59¢ 55¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Up 65¢ 73¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Up 54¢ 16¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +65%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +60%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +68%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +40%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +40%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +46%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +44%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +52%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +46%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +44%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +44%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +48%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +153%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 11? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 11? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 4? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 34°C on May 6? Jun 14 $369 −$369 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 5? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 30°C on May 8? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 6? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 28°C on May 8? Jun 14 $1,600 −$1,600 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on May 6? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 34°C on May 5? Jun 14 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 9? Jun 14 $60 −$60 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 5? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on May 6? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 31°C on May 8? Jun 14 $7 +$163 +2203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on May 5? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on May 4? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on May 5? Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 5? Jun 14 $121 −$18 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 35°C on May 5? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 05 $3,162 −$1,871 -59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 58m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 6h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 6h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 8h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 11h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 12h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 14h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 25h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.36 · official $3.36 (match) · 574 history records