Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:49:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40ca…62fc politics 51 markets active 0h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$138 (-0%) realized −$138 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate18%9W / 42L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,346per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$12
14 days−$26
30 days−$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 58% −$54
other 26% −$22
sports 5% −$96
world 4% +$10
economics 3% +$1
culture 3% −$3
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 28 -1.0% -10.4% 11% 4% -9.7%
≤90d 51 -0.3% -9.8% 18% 10% -9.7%
all 51 -0.3% -9.8% 18% 10% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 10% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 10% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 8% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 6% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,678) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$7 · ×2.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$138
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses9 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage77d
Avg bet$1,346
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $634 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $622 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $1,480 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,428 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1,411 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,586 −$3 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1,507 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,314 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 06 $1,175 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,680 −$3 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $707 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $2,970 −$4 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $1,065 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 01 $713 +$1 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 01 $98 $0 +0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $1,159 −$2 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $2,486 −$4 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $878 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $2,168 −$3 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $1,078 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 25 $1,096 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $1,149 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $2,277 −$3 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,660 −$3 -0%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 21 $57 −$57 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 20 $39 +$30 +76%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $1,268 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $2,994 −$5 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $1,678 −$3 -0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres May 19 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 18 $1,754 −$3 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m May 11 $1,074 +$2 +0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,575 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $4,631 −$5 -0%
Flyers vs. Penguins Apr 21 $46 −$46 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 21 $55 +$16 +29%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $3,721 −$4 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,427 −$1 -0%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 16 $2 +$3 +188%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $5,128 −$5 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $1,561 −$2 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $1,219 $0 -0%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 09 $32 −$32 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 09 $36 +$53 +146%
Will Fred Couples win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 07 $1,537 −$2 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 06 $1,672 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 06 $1,745 −$2 -0%
Maple Leafs vs. Sharks Apr 06 $47 −$47 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Oilers Apr 06 $56 +$27 +49%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 03 $1,188 +$12 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $633 0m
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $634 1h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $621 1h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $622 5h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,478 3d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,480 3d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,426 5d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,428 5d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,409 5d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,411 5d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,583 5d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,586 6d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,505 6d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,507 6d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,312 10d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,314 11d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,173 11d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,175 11d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,678 12d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,680 12d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $706 12d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $707 13d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,609 13d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,611 13d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,063 13d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,065 13d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,157 17d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,159 17d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,024 20d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,025 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 170 history records