Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:34:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40c8…2b55 crypto 160 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (3343 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,128 (-3%) realized −$939 · open −$189
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate83%132W / 27L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$209per market
Trades / day3343.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$200now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,254
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3343 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 159 +5.2% -4.8% 83% 55% -5.6%
≤30d 159 +5.2% -4.8% 83% 55% -5.6%
≤90d 159 +5.2% -4.8% 83% 55% -5.6%
all 159 +5.2% -4.8% 83% 55% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3343.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.8% 55% -5.6%
10% ← realistic here -13.9% 2% -14.6%
15% -22.2% 1% -22.9%
20% -29.9% 1% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
20.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$82 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$200
Realized−$939
Unrealized−$189
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses132 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)159 / 160
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$209
Trades / day3343.0
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Up 92¢ 48¢ $388 $199 −$189 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $316 +$44 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $319 +$41 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $484 +$85 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $210 +$30 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $259 +$41 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $240 +$32 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $503 +$70 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 22 $272 +$28 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 22 $288 +$23 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $87 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 22 $161 −$131 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 22 $56 −$26 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 22 $141 +$9 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 22 $222 +$18 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 22 $230 −$170 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 22 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 22 $267 +$33 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $61 +$8 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 22 $78 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 22 $286 +$44 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 22 $140 +$10 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 22 $392 +$58 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 22 $419 +$32 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 22 $53 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 22 $136 +$14 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 22 $110 +$10 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $325 +$34 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 22 $301 +$29 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 22 $181 −$73 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 22 $232 +$38 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 22 $277 −$37 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 22 $282 +$48 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 22 $199 +$40 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 22 $238 +$32 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 22 $261 +$39 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 22 $102 −$72 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $262 +$38 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 22 $269 +$31 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 22 $160 +$20 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $391 +$59 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 22 $362 +$58 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 22 $324 +$36 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 22 $151 +$29 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 22 $170 +$10 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 22 $288 +$42 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 22 $268 +$29 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 22 $182 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 22 $400 +$42 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $29 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $29 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $29 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $12 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $14 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $29 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $28 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $12 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $15 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $28 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $20 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $7 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $27 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $26 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $8 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $7 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $24 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $16 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $4 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $23 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $27 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $27 7m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $199.50 · official $237.30 · 3500 history records