Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:39:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40c7…cd0f world 86 markets active 2h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$67 (+1%) realized +$64 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate51%43W / 41L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$136now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$2
other 28% +$56
politics 19% +$3
weather 2% +$4
sports 1% +$1
finance 1% $0
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)+1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 7 +187.5% +160.1% 86% 14% +16.6%
≤90d 74 +13.2% +2.4% 50% 7% -8.8%
all 84 +12.3% +1.6% 51% 8% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.6% 8% -8.7%
10% -8.1% 6% -17.4%
15% -17.0% 2% -25.4%
20% -25.1% 1% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 61% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.12 per $1 lost it wins $3.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$136
Realized+$64
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses43 / 41
Open positions2
Markets (closed)84 / 86
History coverage101d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $103 $103 −$0 (-0%)
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 99¢ $31 $34 +$3 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on June 3? Jun 03 $33 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 3? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official ca May 27 $76 +$2 +3%
Will Al Green be the Democratic nominee for TX-18? May 27 $27 +$2 +8%
Will "The Boroughs" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? May 27 $31 $0 +1%
Will Bernie say "Billionaire" 3+ times in Maine? May 25 $32 +$1 +3%
Will "FJORD by Cristian MUNGIU" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film May 23 $4 +$53 +1393%
Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B? May 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Amy McGrath be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky? May 18 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on May 15? May 16 $79 +$5 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 13 $96 $0 -0%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, May 12 $44 $0 +0%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? May 12 $70 $0 +0%
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? May 11 $92 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 10 $347 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 10 $91 $0 +0%
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? May 09 $1,019 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 09 $343 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 07 $5 +$2 +44%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 06 $14 +$1 +7%
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 04 $91 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? May 01 $14 −$1 -7%
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026? Apr 30 $90 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 30 $82 $0 -0%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? Apr 27 $43 $0 +0%
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2 Apr 26 $83 $0 +0%
Will Jernej Vrtovec be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Apr 25 $89 −$2 -2%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th? Apr 25 $3 $0 -14%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap Apr 25 $82 +$1 +1%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 25 $82 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $90 $0 +0%
Will Iran strike Lebanon by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $9 +$1 +12%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 Apr 24 $171 $0 +0%
Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $7 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30? Apr 23 $82 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $91 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $90 $0 +0%
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 Apr 21 $82 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? Apr 21 $91 $0 +0%
Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after Apr 16 $169 +$2 +1%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? Apr 14 $173 −$2 -1%
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 14 $172 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Lyman by April 30, 2026? Apr 13 $3 +$1 +29%
Will Hao-Tong Li win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $79 +$2 +3%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $85 $0 -0%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parl Apr 10 $4 +$1 +31%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $77 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 09 $162 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $103 1h
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $31 14d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 3? BUY Yes $1 20d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 3? BUY Yes $1 20d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 3? BUY Yes $0 20d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 3? BUY Yes $0 20d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on June 3? BUY No 96¢ $33 20d
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official ca BUY Yes 97¢ $7 27d
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official ca BUY Yes 97¢ $17 27d
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official ca BUY Yes 97¢ $51 27d
Will "The Boroughs" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? BUY Yes 99¢ $31 27d
Will Al Green be the Democratic nominee for TX-18? BUY No 92¢ $27 28d
Will Bernie say "Billionaire" 3+ times in Maine? BUY Yes 97¢ $32 31d
Will "FJORD by Cristian MUNGIU" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film BUY Yes $4 32d
Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B? BUY No $2 34d
Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B? BUY No $0 34d
Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B? BUY No $0 34d
Will Amy McGrath be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky? BUY Yes $3 35d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on May 15? BUY No 94¢ $79 39d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes $0 39d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes $2 39d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes $2 39d
Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY No $1 40d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes $0 40d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes $0 40d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes $1 40d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes $1 40d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes $2 40d
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, SELL Yes $0 40d
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, SELL Yes $1 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $136.31 · official $136.31 (match) · 353 history records