Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:24:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40c5…5cba politics 96 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Covers last 4d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (617 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL −$2,846 (-4%) realized −$2,469 · open −$377
Gross ROI / mkt +564% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +411% what you keep after slip
Net edge+411%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate78%7W / 2L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$802per market
Trades / day617.0pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$9,873now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$73
economics 25% −$9
politics 15% +$139
other 13% −$105
crypto 3% +$2,051
tech 2% +$194
culture 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+500.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +563.5% +500.3% 78% 56% +33.1%
≤30d 9 +563.5% +500.3% 78% 56% +33.1%
≤90d 9 +563.5% +500.3% 78% 56% +33.1%
all 9 +563.5% +500.3% 78% 56% +33.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover617.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +500.3% 56% +33.1%
10% ← realistic here +442.9% 56% +20.4%
15% +390.4% 56% +8.8%
20% +342.3% 44% -1.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +87% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +564% · $-wt +87% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
27.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$750 vs −$769 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.42 per $1 lost it wins $3.42
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$9,873
Realized−$2,469
Unrealized−$377
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses7 / 2
Open positions121
Markets (closed)9 / 96
History coverage4d ⚠
Avg bet$802
Trades / day617.0
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 121 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? No 88¢ 86¢ $1,018 $995 −$23 (-2%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 85¢ 85¢ $766 $766 −$0 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $363 $359 −$4 (-1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 23¢ $292 $288 −$4 (-1%)
Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $276 $278 +$2 (+1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $273 $274 +$2 (+1%)
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? No 94¢ 93¢ $273 $270 −$3 (-1%)
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? No 92¢ 90¢ $226 $222 −$4 (-2%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 91¢ 91¢ $212 $212 −$1 (-0%)
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 99¢ 99¢ $199 $199 +$0 (+0%)
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 99¢ 99¢ $198 $198 +$0 (+0%)
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 100¢ 99¢ $199 $197 −$2 (-1%)
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 97¢ $197 $195 −$2 (-1%)
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $191 $191 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $187 $185 −$2 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $184 $185 +$1 (+1%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $196 $182 −$14 (-7%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 93¢ 91¢ $186 $181 −$5 (-2%)
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 Yes 20¢ 18¢ $192 $181 −$11 (-6%)
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $178 $178 +$0 (+0%)
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 93¢ 95¢ $172 $176 +$4 (+2%)
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 94¢ 90¢ $171 $162 −$9 (-5%)
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $163 $162 −$1 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes $178 $153 −$26 (-14%)
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? No 84¢ 76¢ $168 $151 −$17 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 22 $4 +$2,676 +60249%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 22 $637 −$1,538 -241%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Jun 22 $200 +$2,067 +1034%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De Jun 22 $201 +$199 +99%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $8 +$192 +2281%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 21 $300 +$114 +38%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 21 $2,000 $0 -0%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $599 +$1 +0%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 19 $297 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes $1 9m
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $186 10m
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $17 28m
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb BUY No 90¢ $0 29m
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 99¢ $83 29m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 BUY Yes $1 30m
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $64 52m
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes $0 56m
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 1h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes $11 1h
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $102 1h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $36 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $299 1h
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $4 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $5 1h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $13 1h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $186 1h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $8 2h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes $1 2h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 BUY Yes $0 2h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 BUY Yes $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,872.89 · official $9,872.28 (match) · 3500 history records