Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:54:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
40 0x40c4…adbe other 312 markets active 1h ago coverage 717d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$3,304 (+6%) realized +$3,327 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate45%136W / 166L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$180per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$1,548now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$374
14 days+$1,115
30 days+$1,362
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$2,008
politics 20% −$961
world 8% +$325
sports 8% +$645
culture 7% +$278
crypto 3% +$1,109
tech 2% −$406
economics 0% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -38.7% -44.5% 29% 29% +10.0%
≤30d 24 +28.5% +16.3% 58% 58% +21.4%
≤90d 167 -55.4% -59.6% 19% 19% -42.6%
all 302 +3.0% -6.8% 45% 39% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 39% -4.3%
10% -15.7% 37% -13.5%
15% -23.8% 34% -21.9%
20% -31.3% 28% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +60% → late -53% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$143 vs −$99 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

717d coverage
Net worth$1,548
Realized+$3,327
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses136 / 166
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions9
Markets (closed)302 / 312
History coverage717d
Avg bet$180
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 302 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $400 $509 +$109 (+27%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $390 $349 −$41 (-11%)
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? No 90¢ 94¢ $260 $270 +$10 (+4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $158 $230 +$72 (+45%)
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $110 $113 +$3 (+3%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $54 $45 −$9 (-17%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 47¢ 14¢ $80 $23 −$57 (-71%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Canada 14¢ 1¢ $75 $8 −$67 (-90%)
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $44 $2 −$42 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Harry Kane: 1+ assists Jun 23 $99 −$97 -99%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists Jun 23 $51 +$96 +188%
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals Jun 22 $71 −$70 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $26 −$25 -97%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $1,392 +$570 +41%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $102 +$137 +134%
Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $121 +$82 +67%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $102 +$126 +124%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $111 +$89 +79%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $56 +$50 +90%
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals Jun 16 $72 −$70 -98%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $152 +$154 +101%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $106 +$94 +89%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $82 +$22 +27%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$199 +388%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $132 +$123 +93%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$161 +158%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $508 +$413 +81%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $407 −$400 -98%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $102 −$61 -60%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 16 $300 +$145 +48%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? May 15 $410 −$410 -100%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 14 $155 +$94 +60%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $2,000 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 08 $203 −$200 -99%
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer May 07 $102 +$156 +154%
Harry Kane: Anytime Goalscorer May 07 $152 +$121 +79%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $153 +$213 +140%
Desire Doue: Anytime Goalscorer May 06 $102 −$100 -98%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer May 06 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $67 −$65 -98%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $193 −$190 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $326 −$320 -98%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 03 $118 −$46 -39%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $61 +$53 +86%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 29 $51 +$91 +179%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score Apr 29 $151 +$57 +38%
Harry Kane: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 29 $102 +$121 +119%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $82 −$80 -98%
Desire Doue: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 28 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Wrexham AFC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 26 $96 +$204 +212%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $200 +$146 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 8¢ $26 32m
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 22¢ $51 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 47¢ $81 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ assists BUY Yes 19¢ $9 5d
Harry Kane: 1+ assists BUY Yes 19¢ $10 5d
Harry Kane: 1+ assists BUY Yes 19¢ $10 5d
Harry Kane: 1+ assists BUY Yes 19¢ $19 5d
Harry Kane: 1+ assists BUY Yes 25¢ $51 5d
Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists BUY Yes 30¢ $51 5d
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists BUY Yes 34¢ $51 6d
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $71 6d
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 17¢ $51 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 6d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $258 6d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $134 9d
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 84¢ $239 9d
Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $41 9d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 35¢ $102 9d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $144 10d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $121 11d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $51 11d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $51 11d
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $72 12d
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $102 12d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $56 12d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $111 12d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $0 13d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $90 13d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 13d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,547.89 · official $1,547.89 (match) · 1978 history records