Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:52:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40c0…7e64 crypto 192 markets active 3h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,880 (-11%) realized −$1,880 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate48%90W / 97L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day15.1pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$190
7 days+$2,099
14 days+$1,421
30 days+$321
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$962
crypto 39% +$421
sports 7% −$43
world 3% +$72
economics 2% +$7
tech 1% $0
finance 1% −$20
weather 0% +$33
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +49.2% +35.0% 73% 73% +33.1%
≤30d 27 +17.0% +5.8% 59% 52% -5.8%
≤90d 35 +11.5% +0.9% 60% 43% -7.2%
all 187 -15.7% -23.8% 48% 28% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 28% -12.4%
10% -31.1% 20% -20.8%
15% -37.7% 14% -28.4%
20% -43.8% 10% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$43 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$1,880
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses90 / 97
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)187 / 192
History coverage116d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day15.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 90¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $482 +$595 +123%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $563 −$558 -99%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 23 $348 +$152 +44%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $789 +$563 +71%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $309 +$168 +55%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21 Jun 22 $202 +$82 +41%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $456 +$54 +12%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? AND Will Uruguay vs. Cabo V Jun 21 $461 −$38 -8%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-2 Jun 21 $201 −$10 -5%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Jun 20 $447 +$846 +189%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $204 +$244 +120%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $93 −$92 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $147 −$3 -2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $144 +$152 +105%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2 $0 +21%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $6 +$1 +13%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $10 −$3 -27%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $13 −$1 -10%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $8 +$3 +35%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $17 −$3 -15%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $19 $0 -2%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $46 +$15 +32%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $990 −$988 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $385 +$219 +57%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $368 +$22 +6%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1,119 −$1,100 -98%
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? May 08 $78 +$6 +8%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $73 −$72 -99%
Will 130 to 149 tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026? Apr 08 $69 −$1 -2%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of March? Apr 03 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Mar 30 $1 +$1 +101%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? Mar 30 $40 $0 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of March? Mar 30 $27 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? Mar 29 $72 −$45 -63%
Will Colombia win on 2026-03-26? Mar 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Mar 24 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-03-26? Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Mar 23 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Mar 23 $8 −$1 -8%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $32 +$8 +25%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of March? Mar 20 $7 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 18 $199 +$1 +0%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on March 17? Mar 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 on March 16? Mar 17 $208 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 98°F or higher on March 15? Mar 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026? Mar 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Mar 16 $196 −$13 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Mar 15 $68 −$67 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 15 $68 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 91¢ $1,078 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 40¢ $482 7h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 65¢ $808 8h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY 35¢ $127 8h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $563 26h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 69¢ $348 31h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Spread: France BUY 28¢ $282 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $309 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21 BUY 71¢ $202 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $510 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 58¢ $612 3d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? AND Will Uruguay vs. Cabo V SELL 53¢ $423 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-2 SELL 74¢ $192 3d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? AND Will Uruguay vs. Cabo V BUY 57¢ $461 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $446 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-2 BUY 77¢ $201 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 57¢ $177 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND BUY 34¢ $447 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 45¢ $204 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $93 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 48¢ $144 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 67¢ $144 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $147 8d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 8d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 8d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 8d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $11 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $11 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
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