Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:11:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40c0…21c7 sports 61 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$159 (-12%) realized −$163 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate34%20W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day13.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$67
7 days−$190
14 days−$185
30 days−$185
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% −$71
politics 35% −$29
other 17% −$60
world 2% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-29.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -36.6% -42.7% 26% 21% -25.0%
≤30d 59 -21.5% -29.0% 34% 29% -24.1%
≤90d 59 -21.5% -29.0% 34% 29% -24.1%
all 59 -21.5% -29.0% 34% 29% -24.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.0% 29% -24.1%
10% -35.8% 17% -31.3%
15% -42.0% 14% -38.0%
20% -47.7% 10% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized−$163
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses20 / 39
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)59 / 61
History coverage12d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day13.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova Susan Bandecchi 95¢ 100¢ $91 $96 +$5 (+5%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 90¢ 88¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Stevenson/Willis vs Nys/Roger-Vasselin Jun 17 $3 −$3 -80%
Halle Open (Doubles): Krawietz/Puetz vs Galloway/Peers Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $5 $0 -4%
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida Jun 17 $18 −$3 -14%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 16 $60 −$20 -33%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $93 −$1 -1%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$2 +7%
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas Jun 16 $10 +$2 +16%
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Monzon vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 16 $20 +$4 +22%
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You Jun 16 $50 −$18 -35%
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 16 $35 +$15 +43%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 16 $2 −$1 -84%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$42 -82%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +105%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -58%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 15 $1 $0 -36%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 -7%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $181 −$39 -22%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $31 $0 +1%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -13%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $10 +$4 +39%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 15 $1 $0 -15%
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 15 $1 −$1 -78%
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 15 $2 $0 -10%
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 14 $1 +$1 +75%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Benin win on 2026-06-05? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +21%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Tōkyō win on 2026-06-06? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethiopia vs. Malawi end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Portugal vs. Chile end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 $0 -23%
Will Haiti vs. Peru end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +18%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 $0 -48%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +32%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $452 −$27 -6%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -3%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $2 +$3 +129%
Tucuman: Juan Estevez vs Matias Soto Jun 09 $5 +$1 +14%
Tucuman: Segundo Goity Zapico vs Federico Coria Jun 09 $5 $0 +4%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1 $0 -15%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $2 −$1 -26%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $2 $0 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $20 3m
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Stevenson/Willis vs Nys/Roger-Vasselin SELL Nys/Roger-Vasselin $1 6m
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova BUY Susan Bandecchi 95¢ $20 26m
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova BUY Susan Bandecchi 96¢ $30 26m
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova BUY Susan Bandecchi 97¢ $10 28m
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova BUY Susan Bandecchi 96¢ $11 31m
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova BUY Susan Bandecchi 91¢ $10 32m
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova BUY Susan Bandecchi 93¢ $10 33m
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Stevenson/Willis vs Nys/Roger-Vasselin BUY Nys/Roger-Vasselin 33¢ $3 40m
Halle Open (Doubles): Krawietz/Puetz vs Galloway/Peers BUY Krawietz/Puetz 38¢ $5 6h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 54¢ $5 6h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 55¢ $5 8h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida SELL Gustavo Almeida 36¢ $5 16h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida SELL Joaquin Aguilar 36¢ $1 16h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida BUY Gustavo Almeida 69¢ $10 16h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida SELL Joaquin Aguilar 28¢ $10 16h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida BUY Joaquin Aguilar 21¢ $8 16h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Juan Bautista Torres 77¢ $20 17h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres SELL Gonzalo Villanueva 44¢ $14 17h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres SELL Gonzalo Villanueva 84¢ $8 18h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 77¢ $20 18h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres SELL Gonzalo Villanueva 48¢ $6 18h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 68¢ $20 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 97¢ $33 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 78¢ $39 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $40 20h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 42¢ $33 20h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $31 20h
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Monzon vs Juan Manuel La Serna SELL Juan Manuel La Serna 100¢ $24 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.43 · official $115.43 (match) · 178 history records