Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T14:47:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

40
0x40bd…2c82
other · 135 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$14 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$15 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses9 / 125
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)134 / 135
History coverage120d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%
Chart Positions 1 History 134 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Hornets vs. Suns Hornets 63¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Suns vs. Kings Kings 23¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Mavericks vs. Hornets Mavericks 16¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Wizards vs. Heat Wizards 10¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Hawks vs. Bucks Bucks 51¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Nets vs. Heat Nets 14¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Warriors vs. Thunder Warriors 14¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Hornets vs. Trail Blazers Trail Blazers 42¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $8 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $4 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $43 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $111 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 26 $45 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $79 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $121 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $44 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $40 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $37 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $38 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 19 $40 $0 -0%
Will Alexei Popyrin win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 18 $45 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $43 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $86 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $40 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $104 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $41 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 12 $34 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 11 $90 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $34 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $81 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $48 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $175 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $44 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $75 $0 -0%
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 05 $34 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $35 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 05 $38 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $44 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 03 $83 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $136 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $44 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $34 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $36 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $37 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $40 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $46 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 22 $38 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 22 $47 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $48 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $179 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $39 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 19 $40 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $44 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $35 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 18 $99 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $36 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 54% −$4
politics 29% −$3
sports 9% −$8
crypto 4% $0
tech 3% $0
economics 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $8 3d
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8 3d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $4 5d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $4 7d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $43 15d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $43 17d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 17d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $45 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $45 19d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $42 19d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 19d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 20d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 21d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $37 21d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $37 21d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $44 21d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $44 22d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $40 22d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $40 22d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $37 22d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $37 22d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $38 23d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 24d
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $46 25d
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $46 25d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $47 25d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $47 25d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $40 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 105 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 134 -2.3% -11.6% 7% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 4% -9.7%
10% -20.0% 4% -18.4%
15% -27.8% 3% -26.3%
20% -34.9% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.00 · official $5.00 (match) · 372 history records