Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:52:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40bd…d16b politics 87 markets active 1h ago coverage 403d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate10%8W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% −$5
other 36% −$4
sports 13% −$1
crypto 4% $0
culture 3% $0
economics 3% $0
world 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 -1.9% -11.2% 10% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 10 -1.9% -11.2% 10% 0% -9.8%
all 83 -5.5% -14.5% 10% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 1% -9.7%
10% -22.7% 1% -18.3%
15% -30.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -37.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

403d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses8 / 75
Open positions4
Markets (closed)83 / 87
History coverage403d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+30%)
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 27 $66 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 27 $58 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $117 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $1 $0 -17%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $57 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $64 −$1 -1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 14 $60 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $60 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $124 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $64 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 05 $63 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 8? Feb 09 $63 $0 +0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 31 $129 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jan 28 $62 $0 -0%
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call? Jan 26 $62 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 22 $1 $0 -33%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 21 $129 $0 -0%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 19 $127 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 17? Jan 18 $63 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 16 $63 $0 -0%
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? Jan 16 $64 $0 +0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 15 $1 $0 -17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 14? Jan 15 $63 $0 +0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 13 $66 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 10 $1 $0 -17%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 10 $127 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 09 $1 $0 -50%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 09 $63 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 06 $1 $0 -20%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 04 $66 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 30 $65 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 28 $132 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 20 $65 $0 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 13 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 05 $129 $0 -0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 03 $64 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 01 $131 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 28 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 23 $65 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 21 $64 $0 +1%
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 15 $64 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 15 $2 $0 -16%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 06 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 04 $67 $0 -0%
Will the New York Jets win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 02 $65 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 01 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 21 $129 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 18 $130 $0 -0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 14 $66 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 12 $131 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $58 1h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $58 28h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 28h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $59 3d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $59 4d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 5d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $59 5d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $59 7d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 7d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 8d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 8d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $57 8d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $57 10d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 10d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 12d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 12d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 100¢ $60 12d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $60 15d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 17d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 17d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $60 17d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $60 18d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.40 · official $3.40 (match) · 441 history records