Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:02:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
40 0x40bb…41df world 72 markets active 0h ago coverage 338d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate32%22W / 47L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$4
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$18
sports 37% +$6
other 16% −$3
politics 6% $0
finance 3% −$16
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.8% -10.3% 27% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 33 +0.2% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 51 +0.4% -9.1% 41% 2% -9.5%
all 69 +0.3% -9.2% 32% 1% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 1% -9.5%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

338d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses22 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)69 / 72
History coverage338d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 57¢ 60¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 47¢ 44¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 25 $104 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $136 −$2 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $117 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $195 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $73 $0 -0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $17 −$1 -5%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 22 $95 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $15 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $83 +$1 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $190 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $7 $0 -4%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $96 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $106 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $72 −$2 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $46 +$4 +9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $45 −$2 -5%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $107 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $20 +$1 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $88 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $195 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $148 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $7 +$1 +8%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $205 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $40 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $95 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $168 −$1 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $108 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $189 −$1 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $82 +$6 +7%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $42 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $104 +$2 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 28 $33 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $241 −$16 -7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $105 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $132 +$5 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $53 +$6 +12%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $90 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 21 $101 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 20 $50 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 20 $87 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 17 $9 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 17 $97 −$1 -1%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $49 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $103 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $572 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $627 +$2 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $528 +$1 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $566 +$3 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $566 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $566 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $104 25m
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $104 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $38 12h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $41 12h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $80 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $8 18h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $59 23h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $36 23h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $46 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $49 26h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 52¢ $73 39h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 52¢ $49 41h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 52¢ $24 41h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $16 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $17 2d
Trump out as President before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $95 2d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $19 2d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $15 2d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $61 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $35 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $19 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $47 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $9 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.64 · official $0.00 (match) · 296 history records