Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:42:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
40 0x40b9…6f0a other 99 markets active 1h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,761 (-2%) realized −$1,761 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate12%12W / 85L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,121per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$759now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$8
14 days−$23
30 days−$1,785
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$1,739
politics 34% −$44
sports 4% $0
economics 3% −$4
world 2% −$11
culture 2% −$2
tech 1% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 34 -13.0% -21.2% 12% 6% -14.4%
≤90d 97 +1.9% -7.8% 12% 10% -11.0%
all 97 +1.9% -7.8% 12% 10% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 10% -11.0%
10% -16.6% 10% -19.5%
15% -24.7% 10% -27.3%
20% -32.1% 9% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,389) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +13% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$24 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$759
Realized−$1,761
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses12 / 85
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)97 / 99
History coverage87d
Avg bet$1,121
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $480 $480 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $279 $279 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $455 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $2,004 −$3 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $941 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $2,049 −$3 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $790 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $664 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $716 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $677 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 08 $673 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $3,256 −$3 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $644 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $3,446 −$4 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $2,156 −$3 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $1,545 −$2 -0%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $69 +$55 +79%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $2,173 −$2 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $706 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? Jun 01 $349 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 01 $192 +$1 +1%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 30 $1,900 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $1,597 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $309 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $1,958 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $502 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $503 −$1 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 25 $32 −$32 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) May 25 $29 −$29 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Portland Timbers win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 25 $1,585 −$1,585 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5 May 21 $23 +$19 +83%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $2,481 −$3 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 01 $1,318 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $2,686 −$3 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 28 $1,362 −$1 -0%
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Contr Apr 28 $40 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 28 $1,481 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $4,198 −$4 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $2,826 −$3 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $1,246 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 26 $1,380 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 25 $1,389 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $1,490 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $1,376 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $1,197 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 23 $1,293 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $1,388 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $480 1h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $455 19h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $455 21h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $520 40h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $521 43h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $541 47h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $541 2d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $590 2d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $591 2d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $279 4d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $789 5d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $790 6d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $662 7d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $664 7d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $715 7d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $716 7d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $676 7d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $677 8d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $672 8d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $673 8d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $666 8d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $667 9d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $643 9d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $644 9d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $757 10d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $759 10d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $834 10d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $836 11d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $783 11d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $784 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $759.07 · official $759.07 (match) · 286 history records