Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:12:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40b9…b002 other 138 markets active 0h ago coverage 69d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 68d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,311 (+1%) realized +$1,311 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate63%86W / 51L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,493per market
Trades / day49.3pace
Fees−$897est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 69d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$5,100
sports 31% −$6,120
world 1% +$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)+17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +154.0% +129.8% 62% 38% -7.9%
≤30d 64 +63.1% +47.6% 62% 33% -10.3%
≤90d 137 +29.5% +17.1% 63% 18% -10.0%
all 137 +29.5% +17.1% 63% 18% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +17.1% 18% -10.0%
10% +5.9% 12% -18.6%
15% ← realistic here -4.3% 10% -26.5%
20% -13.7% 9% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$2,020) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +57% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
11.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$223 vs −$419 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$1,311
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses86 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$897
Open positions1
Markets (closed)137 / 138
History coverage69d ⚠
Avg bet$1,493
Trades / day49.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 Over 90¢ 90¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $4,062 −$1,669 -41%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $984 +$109 +11%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $604 +$8 +1%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $3,250 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $2,041 +$3,061 +150%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $2,959 −$2,959 -100%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $5,070 $0 -0%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $3,850 +$50 +1%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $974 +$11 +1%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $356 +$200 +56%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $636 −$242 -38%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4,063 +$20 +0%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $3,100 +$1,900 +61%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $1,904 −$1,904 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $3,005 +$1,944 +65%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $1,881 −$1,881 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4,843 −$7 -0%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,810 +$70 +2%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $582 +$928 +159%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $3,424 −$949 -28%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $2,966 +$1,093 +37%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,071 −$1,055 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $806 +$686 +85%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1,879 −$766 -41%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,271 +$839 +66%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $2,308 +$250 +11%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $225 −$220 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $818 −$818 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,034 +$195 +19%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $508 −$159 -31%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2,313 +$725 +31%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $675 −$675 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $142 +$426 +300%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,812 +$58 +3%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1,849 −$449 -24%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $885 −$288 -33%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,158 +$120 +10%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $54 +$47 +89%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4,652 +$50 +1%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $46 −$46 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $15 +$29 +186%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $84 −$28 -33%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $3,154 +$193 +6%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $1,200 +$50 +4%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $2,490 +$53 +2%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $431 +$19 +4%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $2,360 +$59 +2%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $900 +$50 +6%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $143 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $4,156 +$4 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $36 26m
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $426 1h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 1h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $900 1h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $135 1h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $157 1h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $100 1h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $19 1h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $50 1h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $150 1h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $15 1h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $15 1h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $15 1h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $61 1h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $15 1h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $61 1h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $15 1h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $61 1h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $61 1h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $15 1h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 1h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $50 1h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $22 1h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $16 1h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $555 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.49 · official $36.49 (match) · 3500 history records