Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:03:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
40 0x40b9…ef37 crypto 150 markets active 1h ago coverage 557d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$132 (+1%) realized +$131 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate68%101W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$155now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% +$122
other 7% +$1
politics 4% −$1
economics 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.2% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 +6.3% -3.8% 83% 17% -5.0%
≤90d 33 +0.4% -9.2% 73% 6% -10.1%
all 148 +1.2% -8.5% 68% 14% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 14% -9.0%
10% -17.2% 6% -17.7%
15% -25.2% 3% -25.6%
20% -32.6% 3% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$13 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

557d coverage
Net worth$155
Realized+$131
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses101 / 47
Open positions2
Markets (closed)148 / 150
History coverage557d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 96¢ 98¢ $83 $85 +$2 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 96¢ 95¢ $71 $70 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 22 $136 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $82 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 15 $88 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $65 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 8-14? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? Jun 13 $44 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 11 $63 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $151 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 03 $80 +$10 +13%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in June? Jun 02 $66 +$34 +52%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 01 $209 +$4 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 18-24? May 24 $17 +$1 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 20 $87 −$3 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 18? May 19 $85 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 11-17? May 18 $103 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 16 $99 +$3 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 on May 10? May 11 $99 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 06 $94 −$37 -39%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 5? May 06 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 27-May 3? May 04 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 1? May 02 $130 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April? May 02 $132 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? Apr 28 $121 +$11 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on April 17? Apr 17 $128 −$6 -5%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 13-19? Apr 17 $127 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 15 $425 −$8 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 14 $155 −$34 -22%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? Apr 12 $185 −$29 -16%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? Apr 09 $92 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? Apr 08 $188 −$6 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 06 $300 +$6 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 03 $584 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 27 $573 +$12 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 16-22? Mar 22 $370 +$8 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 16-22? Mar 20 $162 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 20 $708 +$23 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 19 $753 +$102 +14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 9-15? Mar 16 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on March 15? Mar 16 $152 +$2 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,350 on March 15? Mar 16 $178 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 March 9-15? Mar 15 $365 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? Mar 04 $104 +$40 +38%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 March 2-8? Mar 03 $20 −$3 -14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 March 2-8? Mar 03 $197 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 2-8? Mar 03 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in March? Mar 03 $226 +$71 +32%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Mar 01 $431 +$6 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 25 $10 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in February? Feb 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Feb 24 $215 +$4 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 96¢ $71 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 92¢ $71 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 96¢ $83 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $83 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $82 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 90¢ $70 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 88¢ $87 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? BUY No 99¢ $65 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 8-14? SELL No 100¢ $20 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? SELL No 100¢ $44 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? BUY No 99¢ $44 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 8-14? BUY No 99¢ $20 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL Yes 73¢ $64 11d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 12d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 72¢ $62 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 88¢ $88 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 64¢ $42 16d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 64¢ $2 16d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 64¢ $21 16d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 66¢ $66 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 4? BUY No 99¢ $151 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? SELL Yes 91¢ $90 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 80¢ $80 19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 66¢ $66 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $106 25d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? SELL No 99¢ $106 26d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? BUY No 98¢ $18 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 18-24? SELL No 100¢ $18 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? BUY No 96¢ $85 33d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? SELL No 89¢ $85 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $154.65 · official $154.65 (match) · 491 history records