Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:29:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
40 0x40b7…2698 crypto 233 markets active 0h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,835 (+12%) realized +$1,835 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate68%158W / 73L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days−$616
14 days−$443
30 days+$1,057
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$1,811
other 7% −$174
sports 1% −$12
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -4.3% -13.4% 32% 32% -58.5%
≤30d 89 +4.8% -5.2% 53% 37% -0.3%
≤90d 222 +4.4% -5.5% 68% 50% +0.2%
all 231 +5.5% -4.6% 68% 52% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 52% +0.4%
10% -13.7% 28% -9.2%
15% -22.0% 17% -18.0%
20% -29.7% 13% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$28 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$1,835
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses158 / 73
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)231 / 233
History coverage93d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 231 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 43¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+68%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Yes 25¢ 21¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $389 −$34 -9%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 25 $8 −$1 -18%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $14 +$2 +17%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $8 +$4 +51%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $19 −$1 -5%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3 +$2 +79%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $2 +$2 +100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $36 −$13 -36%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $17 +$10 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 24 $4 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 23 $4 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 23 $4 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 23 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 23 $7 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 23 $3 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 23 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $4 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10PM ET Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 21 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $405 −$405 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $182 −$182 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $400 +$136 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $334 +$25 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $266 +$40 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $382 +$61 +16%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $103 −$37 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $245 +$30 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $256 −$63 -24%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$59 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $341 −$341 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $66 +$7 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $474 +$47 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $396 +$119 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $421 +$98 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $241 +$72 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $416 +$36 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $411 +$36 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 09 $319 −$319 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 08 $374 +$517 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 08 $30 +$7 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 08 $360 +$34 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 07 $361 +$31 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 46¢ $78 20m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 54¢ $82 21m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 59¢ $99 21m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $95 22m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 60¢ $75 22m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 68¢ $12 23m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 23m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 23m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 67¢ $67 23m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $12 23m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 28¢ $109 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $84 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $52 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $91 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $25 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $22 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 76¢ $62 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 74¢ $46 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 66¢ $96 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 18h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 18h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 59¢ $9 19h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 92¢ $5 19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 88¢ $5 19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 76¢ $7 19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 19h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 24¢ $3 19h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.22 · official $1.18 (match) · 2682 history records