Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:54:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40b6…92d5 other 128 markets active 2h ago coverage 619d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$838 (-7%) realized −$838 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate27%30W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$134
7 days−$229
14 days−$428
30 days−$388
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$321
politics 29% +$32
sports 9% −$337
crypto 9% −$269
weather 4% −$70
world 2% −$13
tech 1% +$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -43.5% -48.9% 14% 8% -24.0%
≤30d 70 -21.4% -28.9% 23% 13% -19.8%
≤90d 77 -20.9% -28.4% 22% 13% -20.7%
all 110 -22.1% -29.5% 27% 13% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.5% 13% -17.2%
10% -36.3% 8% -25.1%
15% -42.4% 8% -32.3%
20% -48.1% 8% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$17 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

619d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized−$838
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses30 / 80
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)110 / 128
History coverage619d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion be a nation from Group C? No 92¢ 92¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 +$18 +172%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 27 $22 −$21 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $12 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Jun 27 $8 −$5 -55%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 22°C on June 27? Jun 27 $4 $0 +10%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 27? Jun 27 $155 −$11 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 27? Jun 27 $17 −$1 -8%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 27? Jun 27 $1 $0 -6%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 −$23 -44%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 25? Jun 25 $37 −$3 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 25? Jun 25 $124 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $200 $0 -0%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 23? Jun 23 $50 $0 -0%
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $200 $0 +0%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$37 +365%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$13 +129%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $200 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $66 −$2 -2%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? Jun 19 $30 −$6 -20%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $220 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$27 +262%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$49 +238%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun Jun 17 $1 +$1 +61%
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $54 −$8 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $100 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? AND Will Egypt vs. IR Iran BUY 4¢ $5 2h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 3h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 3h
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? SELL No 13¢ $4 3h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 22°C on June 27? SELL No 43¢ $4 3h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 22°C on June 27? BUY No 38¢ $1 3h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 22°C on June 27? BUY No 38¢ $2 3h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 27? SELL No 70¢ $25 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 27? SELL No 61¢ $16 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 27? SELL No 50¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 27? SELL No 73¢ $12 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 27? SELL No 73¢ $39 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 27? SELL No 74¢ $68 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 27? BUY No 76¢ $22 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 27? BUY No 76¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 27? BUY No 76¢ $12 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 27? BUY No 77¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 27? BUY No 77¢ $33 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.24 · official $110.24 (match) · 439 history records