Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:56:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40b3…bf2e sports 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$369 (+10%) realized +$369 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate62%41W / 25L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day22.4pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$401
7 days+$445
14 days+$368
30 days+$367
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$407
other 14% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +24.7% +12.8% 63% 27% +5.9%
≤30d 66 +12.8% +2.1% 62% 24% +1.8%
≤90d 66 +12.8% +2.1% 62% 24% +1.8%
all 66 +12.8% +2.1% 62% 24% +1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.1% 24% +1.8%
10% ← realistic here -7.7% 18% -7.9%
15% -16.6% 15% -16.8%
20% -24.8% 12% -25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$14 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.05 per $1 lost it wins $2.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$369
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses41 / 25
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions0
Markets (closed)66 / 66
History coverage18d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day22.4
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 66 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $260 −$3 -1%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $147 −$6 -4%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $20 −$11 -54%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $20 +$5 +23%
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $101 −$80 -79%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $40 −$20 -50%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $20 +$12 +61%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $80 +$1 +1%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $12 +$42 +344%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $50 +$451 +897%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $48 +$6 +12%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 17 $20 +$2 +9%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $53 +$27 +51%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $100 −$12 -12%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $120 +$7 +6%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $60 −$20 -33%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $80 −$19 -24%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $40 −$2 -5%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $79 −$9 -11%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$3 -14%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $25 +$1 +6%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $4 $0 +4%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $64 +$16 +25%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $441 +$14 +3%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $40 +$16 +39%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $60 +$35 +59%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $59 −$1 -2%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $15 +$1 +4%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 $0 -3%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $23 +$1 +5%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $10 −$1 -6%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $30 +$27 +91%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$1 +11%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $99 +$2 +2%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $63 $0 +1%
CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $10 +$19 +190%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 13 $8 −$1 -10%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $150 +$9 +6%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $50 +$3 +6%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $60 $0 +1%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $19 +$8 +41%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $20 −$3 -14%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $10 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 98¢ $200 55m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 98¢ $161 55m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 98¢ $39 56m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 92¢ $57 56m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 95¢ $20 57m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 96¢ $20 57m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 97¢ $20 57m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 92¢ $21 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 88¢ $20 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 87¢ $30 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 76¢ $7 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 77¢ $20 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 50¢ $90 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $20 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $1 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $1 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $16 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $1 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $0 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $17 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $3 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $5 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $15 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $20 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 26¢ $9 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 30¢ $20 2h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 5h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 5h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 19¢ $13 5h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $0 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 438 history records