Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:32:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40b1…5091 crypto 260 markets active 1h ago coverage 287d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$681 (-5%) realized −$681 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%99W / 161L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days+$131
14 days+$131
30 days+$131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$9
sports 8% −$137
other 5% −$630
world 1% −$95
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 +13.9% +3.1% 12% 10% +5.9%
≤30d 58 +13.9% +3.1% 12% 10% +5.9%
≤90d 245 +2.1% -7.6% 38% 36% -5.8%
all 260 +0.6% -9.0% 38% 36% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 36% -14.2%
10% -17.7% 34% -22.4%
15% -25.7% 30% -29.9%
20% -32.9% 26% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$35 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

287d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$681
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses99 / 161
Open positions0
Markets (closed)260 / 260
History coverage287d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 260 Trades
no open positions (118 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$43 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 19 $102 −$17 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 19 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 19 $101 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$36 +685%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$156 +1464%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$168 +1574%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $11 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $11 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $11 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $11 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $11 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $11 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $11 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $10 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $11 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $11 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $11 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $11 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $11 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 584 history records