Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:31:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40b1…0a4b crypto 1028 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (72 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$33 (-1%) realized −$31 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%442W / 585L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day71.5pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$27
14 days−$58
30 days−$122
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$96
other 7% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (72 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -19.6% -27.2% 39% 31% -26.0%
≤30d 1027 -9.0% -17.7% 43% 39% -7.6%
≤90d 1027 -9.0% -17.7% 43% 39% -7.6%
all 1027 -9.0% -17.7% 43% 39% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover71.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.7% 39% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here -25.6% 34% -16.5%
15% -32.8% 32% -24.5%
20% -39.4% 29% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$31
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses442 / 585
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1027 / 1028
History coverage27d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day71.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1027 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 274 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +195%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$5 +292%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +107%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +99%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +70%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +116%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +112%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +11%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -12%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -3%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 12m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 16m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 42m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 57m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 15h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 15h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $4 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 17h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 17h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 18h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.03 (match) · 2169 history records