Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T12:45:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

40
0x40ae…57c1
sports · 114 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$61 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$55 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$61
Realized−$55
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses44 / 54
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions16
Markets (closed)98 / 114
History coverage15d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 16 History 98 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$52
14 days−$55
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 PARIVISION 56¢ 81¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+46%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Aurora Gaming 37¢ 38¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Legacy 56¢ 60¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playoffs OLDBOYS- 49¢ 55¢ $5 $5 +$1 (+12%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 26¢ 30¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+13%)
Counter-Strike: Sashi Academy vs STATE (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A STATE 83¢ 82¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner GenOne 45¢ 46¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) INOX Division 59¢ 50¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs GenOne (+1.5) GenOne 66¢ 72¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+9%)
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) G2 63¢ 64¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 48¢ 60¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+26%)
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BetBoom Team 65¢ 61¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Yes 54¢ 48¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BetBoom Team 33¢ 32¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Map Handicap: Abyssal (-1.5) vs MARKandLARRY (+1.5) Abyssal 50¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 MOUZ 42¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs B8 (+3.5) Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 12 $4 +$2 +40%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Jun 12 $4 +$1 +23%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 12 $8 +$5 +64%
Counter-Strike: Club 333 vs Festina Lente (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playof Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $3 +$3 +97%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs F5 Esports (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoffs Jun 12 $9 +$1 +8%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Natus Vincere (+3.5) Jun 11 $2 +$3 +167%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $4 +$3 +76%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Map Handicap: OXUJI (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Map Handicap: KOL (-1.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+1.5) Jun 11 $7 +$6 +80%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs KOLESIE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 11 $4 +$2 +49%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $5 +$1 +14%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 11 $6 +$12 +209%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $6 +$13 +212%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $6 +$5 +76%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $2 +$3 +160%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lazer Cats vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 11 $4 +$1 +39%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $5 +$4 +72%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Ding Cuts (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Jun 11 $4 +$1 +13%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $4 +$3 +82%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 218.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $3 +$2 +63%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $3 +$2 +95%
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs XI Esport (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe P Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Map Handicap: NEW VISION (-1.5) vs XI Esport (+1.5) Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Falcons Force vs OLDBOYS- (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $2 +$3 +124%
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $6 +$8 +129%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Ursa (-3.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+3.5) Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 10 $9 +$8 +97%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC (BO3) - European Pro L Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Map Handicap: MNTE (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5) Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Misa Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs Clutchain (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Pl Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% −$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Sashi Academy vs STATE (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A BUY STATE 83¢ $4 1h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) SELL MOUZ 100¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European SELL Young Ninjas 100¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL ex-RUBY 100¢ $14 2h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs B8 (+3.5) BUY TheMongolz 38¢ $3 6h
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ BUY OLDBOYS- 50¢ $3 7h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 26¢ $4 8h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes SELL Hurricanes 100¢ $6 9h
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ BUY OLDBOYS- 48¢ $2 10h
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) BUY INOX Division 59¢ $5 10h
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs F5 Esports (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoffs SELL Marsborne 100¢ $10 10h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 37¢ $2 12h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 49¢ $3 12h
Counter-Strike: Club 333 vs Festina Lente (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playof BUY Club 333 43¢ $2 12h
Counter-Strike: Club 333 vs Festina Lente (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playof BUY Club 333 40¢ $4 12h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 56¢ $3 12h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 33¢ $2 13h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Legacy 56¢ $3 13h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) BUY MOUZ 69¢ $4 13h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) BUY G2 63¢ $3 13h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 38¢ $2 13h
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY BetBoom Team 65¢ $3 13h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 56¢ $3 13h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 48¢ $3 13h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Legacy 56¢ $3 13h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 42¢ $2 13h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 37¢ $2 13h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 38¢ $2 14h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Natus Vincere (+3.5) SELL Spirit 100¢ $5 15h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $7 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -18.7% -26.4% 44% 42% -26.2%
≤30d 98 -12.8% -21.1% 45% 44% -22.6%
≤90d 98 -12.8% -21.1% 45% 44% -22.6%
all 98 -12.8% -21.1% 45% 44% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.1% 44% -22.6%
10% -28.6% 42% -30.0%
15% -35.5% 41% -36.7%
20% -41.8% 34% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.47 · official $61.47 (match) · 232 history records