Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:37:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40ae…69c6 world 105 markets active 2h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$555 (-12%) realized −$554 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate31%32W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days−$27
14 days−$27
30 days−$184
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% −$273
other 14% −$160
finance 7% −$61
politics 4% −$6
sports 3% −$30
crypto 3% −$21
economics 2% −$4
tech 1% $0
culture 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -3.1% -12.4% 67% 0% -16.8%
≤30d 23 -6.2% -15.1% 30% 9% -17.4%
≤90d 103 -20.0% -27.6% 31% 15% -20.5%
all 103 -20.0% -27.6% 31% 15% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.6% 15% -20.5%
10% -34.5% 9% -28.1%
15% -40.9% 5% -35.1%
20% -46.7% 4% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$11 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$554
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses32 / 71
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)103 / 105
History coverage64d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 67¢ 68¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+2%)
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Yes 54¢ 48¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $187 −$30 -16%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 18 $95 +$1 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 18 $47 +$3 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $51 −$40 -78%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 29 $39 +$2 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $174 +$8 +5%
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 May 27 $47 −$4 -9%
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? May 27 $47 −$1 -1%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 27 $48 −$2 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $89 −$15 -17%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $76 −$5 -6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 24 $137 −$23 -16%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 24 $89 −$15 -17%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 May 24 $91 −$6 -6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 23 $224 −$33 -15%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 23 $41 +$21 +51%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $60 −$2 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $188 −$50 -26%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 22 $130 +$11 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 22 $45 −$5 -10%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? May 22 $97 −$23 -24%
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? May 21 $40 −$4 -11%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $62 +$27 +43%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 20 $96 −$1 -1%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States? May 20 $18 −$5 -28%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 19 $39 −$1 -2%
Will Joe Mazzulla win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? May 19 $50 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 18 $46 +$5 +11%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 17 $39 +$5 +12%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? May 16 $28 −$12 -43%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 16 $45 −$5 -11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 16 $48 +$5 +10%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15? May 15 $50 −$48 -96%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 15 $48 +$15 +32%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? May 07 $0 $0 -41%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 07 $38 +$21 +53%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 06 $47 −$16 -35%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 05 $144 +$13 +9%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 05 $39 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 04 $47 −$1 -1%
Will Vitality win BLAST Rivals Fort Worth 2026? May 03 $5 +$1 +26%
Will Israel annex any territory by June 30? May 03 $49 −$1 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 03 $48 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 03 $29 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 03 $29 +$1 +4%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $5 −$3 -66%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 2? May 02 $10 +$7 +72%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $4 −$2 -54%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $4 −$3 -63%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 01 $128 −$19 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $53 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $47 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 35¢ $25 27h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $47 28h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $48 28h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 65¢ $47 28h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 87¢ $50 28h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $49 28h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? SELL Yes $11 21d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $41 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $39 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $21 22d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 82¢ $47 23d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 88¢ $48 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $38 23d
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 SELL Yes 65¢ $23 23d
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? SELL No 88¢ $47 23d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 76¢ $46 23d
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 SELL Yes 66¢ $20 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? SELL Yes $19 24d
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 BUY Yes 72¢ $47 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $49 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $66 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $39 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $43 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $34 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $26 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $11 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $17 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.32 · official $37.32 (match) · 380 history records