Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:01:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

40
0x40a7…cfa8
world · 29 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$3 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses10 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage262d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 0 History 29 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $24 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $99 −$1 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $31 $0 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $31 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $33 +$1 +4%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $32 +$1 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $29 $0 +0%
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Mar 15 $19 −$2 -12%
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 12 $2 $0 +7%
Will Delroy Lindo win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards Mar 12 $168 −$5 -3%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 16 $23 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 01 $3 $0 +8%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $26 $0 +1%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 30 $24 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Sep 29 $26 $0 +0%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Sep 29 $26 $0 -0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 29 $27 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 28 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 28 $26 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Sep 27 $9 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 27 $7 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 27 $24 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 26 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 26 $4 +$2 +52%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $23 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 25 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 39% +$1
culture 25% −$5
politics 15% −$2
other 14% $0
sports 4% $0
finance 3% $0
economics 1% +$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 18¢ $11 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 18¢ $2 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 18¢ $10 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 18¢ $3 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $24 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $8 4h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $22 4h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $31 7h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $12 12h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $20 12h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $27 16h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $3 16h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $3 20h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 20h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 24h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $34 38h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $34 38h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $24 43h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $10 43h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 97¢ $34 45h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $34 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $33 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $24 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $9 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $32 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 64¢ $29 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 64¢ $29 4d
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? SELL No 9¢ $17 91d
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? BUY No 10¢ $19 91d
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.9% -8.7% 43% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 7 +0.9% -8.7% 43% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 7 +0.9% -8.7% 43% 0% -9.1%
all 29 +2.1% -7.6% 34% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 3% -9.8%
10% -16.5% 3% -18.4%
15% -24.6% 3% -26.3%
20% -32.0% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 84 history records