trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -12.0% | -20.4% | 0% | 0% | -20.4% |
| ≤30d | 1 | -12.0% | -20.4% | 0% | 0% | -20.4% |
| ≤90d | 1 | -12.0% | -20.4% | 0% | 0% | -20.4% |
| all | 6 | +100.0% | +80.9% | 33% | 33% | +4.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +80.9% | 33% | +4.1% |
| 10% | +63.6% | 33% | -5.9% |
| 15% | +47.8% | 33% | -15.0% |
| 20% | +33.3% | 33% | -23.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? | Yes | 13¢ | 14¢ | $651 | $707 | +$57 (+9%) |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | No | 20¢ | 20¢ | $512 | $508 | −$3 (-1%) |
| Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 4¢ | 4¢ | $165 | $178 | +$13 (+8%) |
| Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | $1 | $0 | −$0 (-30%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Jun 18 | $195 | −$23 | -12% |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Mar 06 | $109 | −$22 | -20% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me | Feb 12 | $42 | −$42 | -100% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me | Feb 11 | $80 | −$80 | -100% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Feb 06 | $17 | +$119 | +719% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Dec 02 | $97 | +$123 | +127% |