Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:33:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

40
0x40a7…ecb7
other · 549 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$1,595 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,261 · open +$13
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$12,896
Realized+$1,261
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses446 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$165
Open positions123
Markets (closed)478 / 549
History coverage14d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day218.4
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit14%
Chart Positions 123 History 478 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days+$821
14 days+$1,261
30 days+$1,261
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curacao reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 98¢ $973 $982 +$10 (+1%)
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 90¢ $782 $773 −$9 (-1%)
Will Germany reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 76¢ $614 $596 −$17 (-3%)
Will Curacao reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $493 $493 +$0 (+0%)
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 97¢ $467 $486 +$18 (+4%)
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 98¢ $416 $424 +$8 (+2%)
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 94¢ 95¢ $384 $390 +$6 (+2%)
Will Sweden reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 98¢ 98¢ $349 $350 +$1 (+0%)
Will Joel Dahmen finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? No 100¢ 100¢ $326 $326 +$1 (+0%)
Will Justin Rose finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? No 100¢ 100¢ $305 $305 +$0 (+0%)
Will Rico Hoey finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? No 100¢ 99¢ $299 $298 −$1 (-0%)
Will Adrien Dumont De Chassart finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? No 100¢ 99¢ $298 $296 −$2 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $300 $278 −$22 (-7%)
Will Stephan Jaeger finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? No 100¢ 100¢ $272 $272 +$0 (+0%)
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 TOUR Championship? No 84¢ 92¢ $225 $247 +$22 (+10%)
Will John Parry finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? No 100¢ 99¢ $239 $238 −$1 (-0%)
Will Michael Brennan finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? No 99¢ 100¢ $235 $236 +$1 (+0%)
Will Eric Cole finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? No 100¢ 99¢ $205 $204 −$1 (-1%)
Will Adrien Dumont De Chassart finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? No 100¢ 100¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-0%)
Will Adrien Dumont De Chassart finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? No 100¢ 99¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-0%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 98¢ $197 $197 −$0 (-0%)
Will Rico Hoey finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? No 100¢ 99¢ $197 $197 −$1 (-0%)
Will Hayden Springer finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? No 100¢ 91¢ $215 $196 −$19 (-9%)
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 84¢ $189 $192 +$3 (+2%)
Will Danny Willett finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? No 100¢ 96¢ $199 $192 −$8 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Manchester City finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premie Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $55 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1,350 +$100 +7%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1,255 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ivory Coast reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $180 +$5 +3%
Will Paul Waring finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 12 $521 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $122 +$3 +3%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $1,349 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $73 +$2 +2%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $1,199 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $80 +$2 +2%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 3 Czechia? Jun 12 $891 +$9 +1%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 3 Czechia? Jun 12 $35 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $200 $0 +0%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $302 $0 +0%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $114 +$2 +2%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 South Africa? Jun 12 $999 +$1 +0%
Will Tunisia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $786 +$7 +1%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 South Africa? Jun 11 $2,597 +$3 +0%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 South Africa? Jun 11 $350 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 South Africa? Jun 11 $500 $0 +0%
South Africa leading at halftime? Jun 11 $106 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 3 South Africa? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $206 +$1 +0%
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $180 +$3 +2%
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $248 +$7 +3%
Will Mexico be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $495 +$5 +1%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 3 Nigeria? Jun 11 $19 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 Nigeria? Jun 11 $33 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 Nigeria? Jun 11 $43 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 3 Nigeria? Jun 11 $49 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Nigeria? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 Nigeria? Jun 11 $66 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 75% +$2,045
sports 15% −$805
crypto 5% +$123
politics 4% +$81
world 2% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alexander Noren finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open BUY No 100¢ $15 4m
Will Alexander Noren finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open BUY No 100¢ $6 4m
Will Stephan Jaeger finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open BUY No 100¢ $114 8m
Will Stephan Jaeger finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open BUY No 100¢ $161 9m
Will Stephan Jaeger finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY No 100¢ $272 9m
Will Hayden Springer finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open BUY No 100¢ $7 11m
Will Hayden Springer finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open BUY No 100¢ $20 12m
Will Hayden Springer finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open BUY No 100¢ $100 12m
Will Hayden Springer finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Ope BUY No 100¢ $110 13m
Will Eric Cole finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? SELL No 100¢ $5 14m
Will Eric Cole finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? SELL No 100¢ $5 14m
Will Eric Cole finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? SELL No 100¢ $5 14m
Will Eric Cole finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? SELL No 100¢ $5 14m
Will Eric Cole finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? SELL No 100¢ $5 14m
Will Eric Cole finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? SELL No 100¢ $5 14m
Will Eric Cole finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? SELL No 100¢ $5 14m
Will Eric Cole finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? SELL No 100¢ $5 14m
Will Eric Cole finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? SELL No 100¢ $5 14m
Will Eric Cole finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? SELL No 100¢ $5 14m
Will Eric Cole finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? SELL No 100¢ $5 14m
Will Eric Cole finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? SELL No 100¢ $5 14m
Will Eric Cole finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? SELL No 100¢ $5 14m
Will Eric Cole finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? SELL No 100¢ $5 14m
Will Eric Cole finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? SELL No 100¢ $5 14m
Will Eric Cole finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? SELL No 100¢ $5 14m
Will Eric Cole finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? SELL No 100¢ $5 14m
Will Eric Cole finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? SELL No 100¢ $5 14m
Will Justin Rose finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY No 100¢ $5 15m
Will Hayden Springer finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open BUY No 100¢ $89 16m
Will Hayden Springer finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Ope BUY No 100¢ $14 18m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)+0.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 271 +8.0% -2.3% 91% 6% -8.6%
≤30d 478 +10.6% +0.0% 93% 6% -8.4%
≤90d 478 +10.6% +0.0% 93% 6% -8.4%
all 478 +10.6% +0.0% 93% 6% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover218.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.0% 6% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -9.5% 3% -17.2%
15% -18.3% 3% -25.2%
20% -26.3% 3% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,896.37 · official $12,895.72 (match) · 3500 history records