Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:03:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
40 0x40a6…133c world 20 markets active 4h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,381 (-3%) realized −$5,034 · open +$2,653
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,765per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$47,240now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$4,904
14 days−$6,123
30 days−$6,123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 95% −$3,418
other 4% +$47
crypto 0% −$100
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-36.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +31.0% +18.6% 50% 50% +34.2%
≤30d 5 -30.1% -36.8% 20% 20% -34.6%
≤90d 5 -30.1% -36.8% 20% 20% -34.6%
all 5 -30.1% -36.8% 20% 20% -34.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.8% 20% -34.6%
10% ← realistic here -42.8% 20% -40.9%
15% -48.4% 20% -46.6%
20% -53.4% 20% -51.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4,904 vs −$2,757 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$47,240
Realized−$5,034
Unrealized+$2,653
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Open positions15
Markets (closed)5 / 20
History coverage11d
Avg bet$3,765
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 87¢ 98¢ $27,084 $30,739 +$3,655 (+13%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? No 76¢ 74¢ $7,600 $7,450 −$150 (-2%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 92¢ 94¢ $3,172 $3,224 +$52 (+2%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 87¢ 93¢ $2,000 $2,138 +$138 (+7%)
Will Saudi Arabia sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? No 85¢ 97¢ $1,000 $1,142 +$142 (+14%)
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No 50¢ 53¢ $1,092 $1,139 +$47 (+4%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $750 $412 −$338 (-45%)
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $294 $207 −$87 (-30%)
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 58¢ 92¢ $100 $157 +$57 (+57%)
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 69¢ 100¢ $100 $144 +$44 (+44%)
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 69¢ 90¢ $100 $131 +$31 (+31%)
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $180 $124 −$56 (-31%)
Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 77¢ 90¢ $100 $117 +$17 (+17%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $1,000 $100 −$900 (-90%)
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by June 30? No 94¢ 98¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $2,250 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $7,900 +$4,904 +62%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $10,800 −$10,800 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $104 −$100 -96%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $1,000 −$128 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 0¢ $13 3h
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 3h
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 0¢ $20 3h
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3h
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 0¢ $239 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $2,000 19h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $3,172 20h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $7,600 22h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $9,800 23h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $1,649 45h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $397 45h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $7 47h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $15 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $28 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $7 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $146 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $250 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $2,000 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $12,804 3d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $750 3d
Will Saudi Arabia sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY No 85¢ $1,000 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1,000 6d
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? BUY No 51¢ $500 6d
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? BUY No 50¢ $92 6d
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? BUY No 50¢ $500 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $4,200 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $3,700 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $1,800 8d
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 1¢ $49 8d
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 1¢ $108 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47,240.43 · official $47,240.43 (match) · 50 history records