Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:34:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
40 0x40a6…e5ff other 263 markets active 1h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$80 (-0%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%18W / 244L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$215per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$14
14 days−$24
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$46
sports 24% −$22
politics 10% −$8
economics 6% −$5
crypto 6% −$4
culture 5% −$5
world 4% −$1
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 66 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 175 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 262 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses18 / 244
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)262 / 263
History coverage142d
Avg bet$215
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 262 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $227 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $309 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $253 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $276 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $516 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $261 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $846 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $951 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $468 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 14 $221 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $732 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $120 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $156 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $482 −$1 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $60 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $125 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $140 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $110 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $440 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $187 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $435 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $370 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $355 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 10 $62 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $454 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $293 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $191 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $146 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $311 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $520 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 08 $390 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $193 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $362 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $280 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $971 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $616 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $546 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $130 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $235 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $152 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $65 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $308 −$2 -1%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $619 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $196 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $370 −$1 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 31 $76 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $351 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $826 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 30 $570 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 1h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $58 1h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 2h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $58 4h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 5h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $59 11h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $59 12h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $59 18h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $59 20h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $59 24h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $59 25h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 32h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 33h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $59 36h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $59 38h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 39h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $59 41h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $59 42h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $59 43h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 45h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $59 46h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $59 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $59 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $59 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $60 2d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $60 2d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $60 2d
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $60 3d
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $60 3d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $60 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.30 · official $58.30 (match) · 1516 history records